A VIEW OF THE WEEK: Approaching fuel shedding could drive SA to a failed state

Growing up, there was a garden that ran along the wall and took up much of the backyard. It annoyed me because it left only a small patch of grass to play on. There was also a cupboard filled with old cans and a few cobwebs, which looked as if it might have been used as a bunker in the First World War.

These were part of our family’s meagre attempt at food reserves. Perhaps it came from a fear of a civil war which loomed as Apartheid drew to an end, or a practice passed down from a generation before where times were tough, money was tight, and dinner was far simpler and more bland. And while I can thank the ANC for their role in preventing a war that would have forced us to turn to our food reserves, I have less confidence in it now.

The distance between Johannesburg and Tehran, the capital of Iran and epicentre of the current Middle Eastern war, is more than 7 200 km, but the shockwaves have been felt at the bottom of Africa. But why is a conflict so far away causing a tsunami threatening to engulf the world in a crisis as devastating as the Covid-19 pandemic of six years ago? It’s because while America and its ally Israel went after military targets, Iran went after economies.

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Second only to guns, America loves to economically strangle countries through sanctions. Iran took that to the next level. When an Iranian drone hit the largest oil refinery in the Middle East, and one of the largest in the world, this week, it shut down operations and sent a message about its intentions.

Attacks on energy fields, airports, and tourist hotspots in the Gulf region were meant to cripple the economic lifeblood of its neighbours. This, along with control over the Strait of Hormuz, which handles between 20% and 25% of global oil consumption, means Iran is halting trade and the export of vital resources. The US may find that initial support for the war turns when supporters face food and fuel shortages.

Global markets have already started to shake, with rapid inflation and unemployment almost certain to follow. In short, life is about to get a lot harder for us all. That is why reserves are so important, and something the ANC-government largely squandered.

In a similar Middle Eastern war more than 50 years ago, South Africa, like much of the world, faced fuel rationing and food shortages due to oil restrictions. It was able to cushion some of the blow with our own reserves.

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