A team of representatives from the Joint Coordination Center inspects on the first grain-laden ship leaving Ukraine on the northwestern entrance of the Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul, Türkiye, Aug. 3, 2022 There’s a version of the Russia story that everyone understands. The energy weapon.
The pipeline politics. It’s the version that gets written about because it’s visible; you can see it in the petrol price and in the gas bills of European households. But there’s a quieter instrument that Russia has been building for years, and it’s one that the current focus on the Iran war and oil prices is completely obscuring.
Specifically, wheat and fertiliser. Right now, as shipping lanes choke and supply chains fracture globally, that instrument is becoming more powerful than it has ever been. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, controlling close to 25% of the global grain trade.That alone is a significant number.
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But the geographic concentration of where that wheat goes is what gives it geopolitical teeth. Russia’s share of Africa’s total wheat imports has grown from 13% to 32% over the past two decades.In North Africa specifically, Russian wheat now accounts for around 42% of total imports, nearly 70% of Egypt’s wheat market alone, which is the most populous country in the Arab world. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, controlling close to 25% of the global grain trade.
That alone is a significant number. Russia’s share of Africa’s total wheat imports has grown from 13% to 32% over the past two decades. In North Africa specifically, Russian wheat now accounts for around 42% of total imports, nearly 70% of Egypt’s wheat market alone, which is the most populous country in the Arab world.
It doesn’t stop at wheat. Russian company PhosAgro, one of the world’s largest phosphate fertiliser producers now supplies 21 African countries, with South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Morocco, and Mozambique among its top five African importers.Fertiliser is upstream of everything. You can import wheat this year if your own harvest fails.
But if you can’t afford fertiliser, your harvest fails next year too. Russia understands this. It has positioned itself at both ends of the food security equation.
Russian company PhosAgro, one of the world’s largest phosphate fertiliser producers now supplies 21 African countries, with South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Morocco, and Mozambique among its top five African importers. Fertiliser is upstream of everything. The diplomatic dimension of this is already playing out in plain sight, though rarely analysed for what it actually is.
In early 2025, Russia completed delivery of 200,000 metric tonnes of free grain to six African countries: Somalia, the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, and Eritrea. The timing wasn’t accidental. Those grain shipments coincided directly with Russia’s expanded security presence across the Sahel, where Russian troops arrived as part of the Africa Corps.Wheat bags printed with Russian and Burkinabe flags.
Security partnerships. Mineral concessions. This is a package deal, and Africa is being asked to sign it one shipment at a time.
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