Does repeating Grade 11 actually improve matric results?

A Stellenbosch University study questions the effectiveness of holding learners back in Grades 10 and 11, suggesting it may not enhance matric outcomes as previously believed. Holding learners back in Grade 10 and Grade 11 may not improve matric results as much as widely assumed, according to new research from Stellenbosch University that is raising questions about the value of high repetition rates before matric. Economist Dr Rebecca Selkirk examined the relationship between Grade 11 repetition rates and matric pass rates in Western Cape schools between 2018 and 2021 as part of her doctoral research.

Her analysis found a positive link between higher Grade 11 repetition rates and stronger matric results. However, that relationship weakened significantly when repetition rates dropped sharply during the Covid-19 pandemic. Selkirk said the findings suggest the role of repetition in improving matric outcomes may be less clear than often believed.

“We spend a lot of money on retaining learners in Grades 10 and 11, where repetition’s effectiveness is unclear and the associated drop-out risk is highest,” she said. Before the pandemic, about 1.5 million learners repeated a grade each year across South Africa’s school system, roughly 12% of total enrolment. Around one-third of all repetition occurred in the years leading up to matric.

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Selkirk’s research suggests schools with higher Grade 11 repetition rates tended to record stronger matric pass rates. She said this could indicate that repeating the grade helps some learners improve their chances of passing matric, or that schools benefit by effectively “gatekeeping” access to the final year. When Selkirk analysed matric results during that period, the link between repetition and matric performance became weaker in both size and statistical significance. She also estimated what matric outcomes in 2020 and 2021 might have looked like had repetition rates remained at earlier levels.

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