April fuel prices set to rocket

South Africans need to brace for a major shock as April fuel prices could jump by as much as R2 to R4 a litre, following the spike in global oil and diesel prices and the fall in the rand. Stanlib chief economist Kevin Lings warned on Tuesday that “the daily under-recovery on SA’s petrol has jumped to 185c/l, while the daily under-recovery on the diesel price is now a massive 354c/l.” If things get worse, the hikes could be even higher. This excludes the increases in the fuel levy, Road Accident Fund levy, and carbon taxes announced in last week’s 2026 Budget, which are set to come into effect on 1 April.

(Government may decide to cancel these increases, or come up with emergency relief measures in the wake of the crisis, as it did during the Covid pandemic fallout in 2020). It comes in the wake of the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran and the ensuing Middle East crisis that has hit oil and energy supplies. This has seen Brent crude prices surge and the rand materially weaken since the weekend.

“Unfortunately, the recent US and Israel attack on Iran, as well as Iran’s subsequent attack on numerous countries in the Middle East, have pushed the oil price significantly higher,” Lings says in a Stanlib (part of the Standard Bank Group) note. “Year-to-date, the Brent oil price is up 30.9% and has risen by 12% over the past year. In comparison, the SA annual rate of fuel inflation was measured at -10.9% year-on-year in February 2025.

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Lings warns that the daily under-recovery in SA’s petrol and diesel prices could get worse if the oil price spirals further and the rand sees a sharper decline. This will fuel SA’s inflation and take initially forecast SA Reserve Bank rate cuts this year off the table. “If the daily under-recovery on the petrol and diesel price remains unchanged at 185c/l and 354c/l respectively, then in April SA CPI will rise by a further 0.5 percentage points more than the current estimate for the monthly increase, taking the annual rate of inflation up from a forecast 3.3% to 3.8%,” he warns.

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