Mozambique prices jump 2.32% in May, pushing annual inflation to 7.22%

Prices in Mozambique rose by 2.32% in May, almost four times the increase recorded in April, pushing annual inflation to 7.22%, according to data released today by the National Statistics Institute (INE), in a month marked by higher fuel prices. The INE’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May shows that Mozambique “recorded a price increase of 2.32%”, compared with April (0.63%), driven mainly by the Transport and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages sectors, which contributed 1.80 and 0.32 percentage points respectively. Following a fuel supply crisis in Mozambique during April, caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the price of diesel rose by 45.5% on 7 May, while petrol increased by 12.1%.

The May CPI report highlights, alongside fuel prices, monthly price increases in urban and suburban semi-collective passenger transport services (11.9%), long-distance passenger bus transport (26.3%) and taxi transport (23.5%), as well as fresh fish (11.7%) and tomatoes (5.7%). Together, these accounted for 2.10 percentage points of the monthly increase. The May CPI report states that cumulative inflation since January 2026 has already reached 5.19%, while annual inflation climbed to 7.22%.

Prices in Mozambique increased by 3.23% during 2025 as a whole, according to previous INE data, remaining below both the 2024 figure and government forecasts. Mozambique recorded eight monthly declines (deflation) in the consumer price index in less than a year and a half, four of them between April and July last year, before returning to price increases from August onwards. According to previous INE data, cumulative inflation in 2024 stood at 4.15%, compared with 5.3% in 2023, but below the peak of almost 13% recorded in July 2022.

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The government forecast inflation of around 7% for Mozambique in 2025, the same estimate it has made for 2026. On 25 May, the Bank of Mozambique decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 9.25%, increased the reserve requirement ratio in local currency, and acknowledged that inflation could rise into double digits due to the fuel crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East. “This decision reflects the persistence of significant uncertainty regarding the duration of the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on logistics chains and the supply of goods, as well as on international and domestic fuel and food prices,” central bank governor Rogério Zandamela explained at the time.

The position was announced at the end of a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (CPMO) in Maputo, which meets every two months. The committee decided to keep the rate unchanged, as it had already done in March, following 12 consecutive rate cuts over 24 months since January 2024. Zandamela acknowledged that any continuation of the pause in this easing cycle would depend on developments in the national and international environment.

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