China has asked companies to suspend signing new contracts to export refined fuel, and to try and cancel shipments already committed, as a widening Middle East conflict curbed refinery output, several industry and trade sources with knowledge of the matter said on March 5. The call does not apply to jet fuel refuelling for international flights, bonded bunkering or supplies to Hong Kong or Macau, the people said. The National Development and Reform Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Lower exports from China, one of Asia’s biggest fuel exporters, are likely to exacerbate the tight fuel supply situation in Asia, pushing refining margins even higher. Diesel’s processing margins were hovering at three-year highs near US$49 a barrel, LSEG pricing data showed on March 5, while jet fuel cracks were more than US$55 a barrel. As most of the March export programme has been fixed and it is hard to recall cargoes, the new government communication is expected to cut into exports from April onwards, the sources added.
For March, exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel combined were expected to remain steady versus earlier industry estimates of around 3.8 million metric tonnes, as companies cashed in robust Asian margins, multiple sources said. LSEG ship-tracking data showed some 70,000 tonnes of jet fuel, 35,000 tonnes of diesel and 35,000 tonnes of gasoline have been shipped out so far this month. China manages its refined fuel exports via a quota system to balance the supply-demand fundamentals in its local market, with its first batch of quota issuance for 2026 little changed from a year ago at 19 million tons.
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Three regional buyers of China-origin cargoes told Reuters on March 5 they would still be receiving their March deliveries in line with earlier loading schedules. At least two Chinese refineries – privately led Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp and Sinopec-operated Fujian refinery – have begun reducing throughput in March, and more plants are expected to curb output as the continuing Middle East conflict disrupts crude oil flows, sending prices surging.
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