In the shadowed corridors of Zimbabwe’s ruling ZANU-PF party, where loyalty is currency and betrayal a daily transaction, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga stands as both heir apparent and perpetual challenger to President Emmerson Mnangagwa. At 69, the former army commander who orchestrated the 2017 military intervention that ousted Robert Mugabe now eyes the presidency with the precision of a marksman. As Zimbabwe hurtles towards the 2028 elections – or perhaps an earlier rupture – Chiwenga’s prospects hinge on leveraging his formidable assets to dismantle the entrenched resistance from Mnangagwa’s faction.
Yet, this succession battle is no straightforward duel; it’s a multifaceted matrix of military might, party intrigue, economic despair, and a fragmented opposition that could either propel Chiwenga to power or consign him to irrelevance. Let us begin by dissecting how Chiwenga might harness the factors in his favour to overturn the Mnangagwa bulwark. Foremost is his unassailable command over the military and security sectors, a legacy of his role in the 2017 “operation” that installed Mnangagwa but left Chiwenga with the real levers of coercive power.
Active-duty officers and veterans alike revere him as the guardian of the liberation struggle’s ethos, viewing Mnangagwa as a mere beneficiary of their sweat and blood. To upend resistance, Chiwenga could subtly mobilise this loyalty through backchannel alliances, perhaps by amplifying war veterans’ grievances against Mnangagwa’s alleged kleptocracy. Figures like Blessed Geza have already voiced demands for Mnangagwa’s exit, labelling him a corrupt interloper.
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Chiwenga might escalate this by orchestrating discreet veteran-led protests or resolutions at party gatherings, framing them as organic uprisings rather than orchestrated coups. Such moves could pressure Mnangagwa into concessions, like stepping aside early, especially if whispers of military intervention – echoing 2017 – begin to circulate among the rank and file. Complementing this is Chiwenga’s potent anti-corruption narrative, which resonates deeply amid Zimbabwe’s grinding economic woes: hyperinflation, unemployment, and a currency in freefall.
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