HARARE – Zimbabwe’s economy is poised for sustained growth in the second-half of 2025, with real gross domestic product (GDP) projected to remain above five percent, driven by a robust agricultural sector, ongoing infrastructure development and an improvement in investor confidence.
The growth projection almost tallies with the Treasury’s six percent GDP expansion for 2025, following El Nino-induced slowdown to two percent last year, when agriculture, one of the key economic sectors, contracted by about 18 percent.
A key factor contributing to this positive sentiment for the 2025 growth expectations is the growing stability of the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency, according to an analysis by stockbroking firm FBC Securities.
Supported by a stringent monetary policy and strengthened foreign reserve backing, the ZiG has demonstrated resilience since its introduction in April last year.
Annual inflation is anticipated to close 2025 within the 25-30 percent range, the outlook analysis says, provided that there are no significant fiscal slippages or adverse parallel market pressures.
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, in its second quarter economic snapshot, said inflation was expected to remain subdued in the outlook, with the monthly rate averaging 0,5 percent since February this year.
“Public debt re-engagement efforts anchored by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and International Monetary Fund are progressing, and if structural benchmarks are met, Zimbabwe could unlock concessional funding that would further support macroeconomic stability and ease exchange rate pressures,” said FBC Securities.
While a medium-to-long-term objective, meeting the structural benchmarks could unlock crucial concessional funding, further bolster macroeconomic stability and ease exchange rate pressures.
The IMF recently completed its 2025 Article IV Mission to Zimbabwe, affirming the importance of these re-engagement efforts for debt resolution and access to external financing.
On the external trade front, Zimbabwe is expected to see a mild widening of its trade deficit in the second-half of 2025 due to rising import demand.
However, strong performance in agricultural and mineral exports is anticipated to offer partial relief.While large exporters have experienced improved foreign currency availability through official channels, access remains constrained for Small and Medium Enterprises, a persistent challenge for this vital segment of the economy.
Credit availability in ZiG is expected to remain tight as authorities maintain a contractionary monetary stance to curb inflation. But the central bank has established the Targeted Finance Facility to improve access to working capital finance.
Firms generating US dollar revenue and businesses involved in infrastructure projects are likely to continue benefiting from improved funding and increasing business confidence, reflecting a divergence in access to capital within the economy.
Several other reputable institutions have noted Zimbabwe’s promising economic outlook this year.The International Monetary Fund noted Zimbabwe’s bullish outlook after recovering in 2025 following a slowdown in 2024 due to drought and other factors.
The IMF said growth was projected to reach six percent in 2025, driven by a rebound in the agriculture and mining sectors, supported by improved climate conditions and high gold prices.
Source: Thezimbabwemail
