Zambia’s political arithmetic and the search for…

Zambia’s road to the August elections is beginning to resemble a political chessboard rather than a straight sprint to State House. The ruling United Party for National Development sits with the advantage of incumbency, President Hakainde Hichilema has accumulated endorsements and the machinery of government remains firmly in place. Yet the deeper contest may not lie in the strength of the incumbent alone, but in how the opposition eventually rearranges itself before the country reaches the ballot.

Within that shifting landscape, one of the more intriguing voices to emerge is Patriotic Front presidential aspirantMakebi Zulu, whose recent reflections on the coming election reveal a strand of opposition thinking that moves beyond slogans and into political arithmetic. Zulu’s argument begins with Zambia’s50-plus-one electoral rule, a system that forces candidates to secure more than half the vote to win outright. The rule was introduced to ensure that the presidency carries a clear national mandate.

In practical political terms, it also introduces a powerful variable: the possibility of arun-off election. That prospect sits quietly beneath much of the current political manoeuvring. In a field where several opposition figures may contest the presidency, the first ballot may not necessarily produce a decisive winner.

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Zulu’s view is that such a scenario would not represent failure for the opposition but rather the opening of a second political stage. In that second round, Zambia would move from a crowded contest into a direct face-off between two candidates. At that point, alliances, calculations and political loyalties that currently appear scattered could suddenly converge.

President Hichilema remains a formidable political operator. His political journey from opposition leader to head of state demonstrated persistence that few African politicians have matched. The ruling party also continues to draw visible endorsements from traditional leaders and public figures who have expressed support for the government’s development agenda.

But Zambia’s political culture has always been more complex than public endorsements alone. Elections are often decided in the quiet privacy of the ballot box rather than in the public theatre of political declarations. It is a reality that seasoned political observers understand well.

Zulu has pointed out that endorsements may reflect many things: political proximity, respect for office, or even the natural instinct to align with those who currently hold power. What matters more in the final calculation, he suggests, is the sentiment voters carry when they stand alone before the ballot paper. The opposition’s challenge, however, lies closer to home.

The Patriotic Front, which governed Zambia for a decade, remains in the middle of a painful internal reorganisation following the death of former presidentEdgar Chagwa Lungu. Leadership disputes, legal complications and rival factions have left the once tightly disciplined party searching for a stable centre. One of the figures often mentioned in that internal turbulence isMorgan Ng’ona Chabinga, whose claim to leadership has generated considerable controversy. Yet for many within the PF, the real work lies not in debating that dispute endlessly but in rebuilding the party’s structures and restoring clarity around its future leadership.

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