The World Bank has downgraded its economic growth forecast for all Portuguese-speaking African countries (PALOP) this year, with the exception of Guinea-Bissau and Angola, which are expected to grow by 5.2% and 2.6%, respectively. In itsGlobal Economic Prospects report, published today in Washington, World Bank economists note that on the positive side, financing conditions have started to improve, with several economies, including Angola, the Republic of Congo, Kenya, and Nigeria, recovering access to international capital markets. In 2025, “Angola, despite gains in the non-oil sectors, was weighed down by the weakness in the oil sector,” the report states.
The economic growth of the region’s second-largest oil producer, after Nigeria, was “hampered by lower oil prices compared to the previous year, underinvestment in the sector, and the negative impact of ageing oil fields,” the economists wrote in one of the few references to Lusophone countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa chapter. This year, looking at the World Bank’s economic growth forecasts for the region, it is clear that Angola is the only Portuguese-speaking African country maintaining the estimate made in June, at 2.6%, with an improvement to 2.8% in 2027, below the regional average of 4.3% this year and 4.5% in 2027. Cape Verde is expected to grow by 5.2% this year and 5% in 2027, representing a 0.1 percentage point drop from the June forecast, while Equatorial Guinea is expected to grow by 0.4% this year and 1% in 2027, a 0.2 percentage point decrease for this year compared to June’s forecast, but an improvement of 2.1 percentage points for 2027.
Guinea-Bissau is expected to see growth of 5.2% this year and next, unchanged from the June forecast. Mozambique is projected to accelerate to 2.8% this year (down 0.7 percentage points from June’s forecast) and 3.5% next year, after a slowdown to 1.1% last year due to “persistent weakness in investment, growing foreign currency shortages, and the effects of post-election unrest.” São Tomé and Príncipe is forecast to grow by 4% and 3.5% this year and next, representing a downward revision of 0.6 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively. READ:World Bank lifts 2026 growth forecast, warns of softer demand World Bank lifts 2026 growth forecast, warns of softer demand Despite the improved outlook for economic development in the region, World Bank economists warn that per capita income gains will remain insufficient to make significant progress in reducing poverty and creating jobs. In the Sub-Saharan Africa chapter, the World Bank states that “risks to the forecasts remain skewed to the downside,” including reduced external demand, lower commodity prices, increased regional political instability, and a deterioration of ongoing conflicts, as well as the issue of external donor financial support, which, if further reduced, “will increase the region’s economies’ vulnerability to health shocks and natural disasters.”
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