We look forward to the year with hope and dread in equal measures. Hope because human inventiveness could bring exciting breakthroughs, and despair because, well, humans are involved. There is an old adage that says predicting the future is harder than predicting the past.
Nevertheless, I was again tasked with this challenge for 2026. I have consulted a Ouija board, observed a scratched and banged-up crystal ball, looked at two cups of tea leaves, had a palm reading and was dealt a hand of tarot cards. So we take a deep breath…
and here we go. AI boom or bust? Despite the massive rush to insert artificial intelligence (AI) into almost every aspect of business and professional activities, and with the way more and more routine work (and people who do it) is being replaced by various AI functions, a classic speculative boom among the companies in the field is coming.
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The use of AI will continue to grow, but the bubble collapse is as certain as the sun rising in the east, as less expensive and ever-simpler-to-use versions come on stream. In 2026 we may well learn how the last person in the buying queue during the great tulip bubble felt the morning after that collapsed. Investment advisers beware – and investors too.
Autonomous warfare? In conflict zones around the world, a revolution in kit is just over the horizon, encouraged by vicious yet unsettled conflicts and rapid technological development. The first intelligent autonomous weapons systems are likely to make their appearance in 2026.
They will replace or supplement drones controlled by human operators, despite fears that such weapons systems will – or could – operate beyond human intervention or adherence to any version of morality or norms of warfare. The race will be on to deploy such devices because they will become increasingly inexpensive and easy to manufacture, replacing human warriors. This could well make conflicts more likely wherever unresolved tensions could break into open warfare.
Sustainable fusion reaction? Somewhere in some laboratory in Europe, China or the US, or perhaps via competition or collaboration among them, a controlled fusion nuclear reaction lasting longer than fractions of a second will be generated. Despite actual commercial applications still being in the future, fusion reactions will create great excitement about generating unlimited electrical power.
Artificial life? In another lab, somewhere, the first artificial life form that replicates itself and draws energy from its environment will be created. It will be a major step towards producing specialised compounds for disease control and even, eventually, for the insertion of synthetic genetic material to correct human genetic problems.
This manufactured life will also generate a huge debate about the relationship between life and any divine presence and powers. (Mary Shelley, where are you now?)
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