South Africa enters a pivotal political year this week as 2026 begins — a year in which the country will hold local government elections. The last time it went down this route, in 2021, the ANC lost control of key metros such as Tshwane, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni, and the chances are strong that the downward spiral will continue. The party’s abysmal performance at local government level — where the delivery of basic services such as water, electricity and refuse collection is in a dire state — has left it deeply exposed.
The year kicks off in a party mood, with the ANC hosting its January 8 birthday celebrations in Rustenburg next weekend. The dusty North West town is undergoing a historical spruce-up because the party’s top brass will be in town. Later in February, the next biggest political event of the year moves to Cape Town for the annual national ritual officially known as the state of the nation address.
Here President Cyril Ramaphosa will make all sorts of promises to the country, with little accountability over what he undertook to deliver in the previous year. Another important event to keep a close watch on will be the DA federal congress, set for later in April. The blue party’s John Steenhuisen is vying for re-election, but it may not be a walk in the park for him.
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Talk in the DA is that Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis is under pressure to challenge his old mate Steenhuisen, as party funders and its other prominent figures have lost confidence in him after alleged abuses of his party-allocated credit card were revealed. The main political event of the year will be the local government elections, following the landmark 2024 national poll in which the ANC lost its outright majority for the first time since 1994. That outcome produced the government of national unity (GNU), bringing together parties such as the DA and IFP.
The coming year could prove pivotal, either consolidating this coalition or unravelling it, with far-reaching consequences for power at the grassroots level. These polls, electing councils for districts, metros and locals, will serve as a referendum on the GNU’s performance. The ANC, which secured just 40% nationally in 2024, faces predictions of further erosion, potentially dipping to 30% in key provinces such as Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
Analysts warn of a “deepening electoral decline”, exacerbated by internal factionalism and scandals. The Madlanga commission, investigating corruption and capture of the criminal justice system, could trigger high-profile arrests or perjury charges, which is bad for the ANC brand and good for its opponents. In metros such as Johannesburg and Tshwane, where coalitions have already proven unstable, voters may punish incumbents for persistent blackouts and crumbling infrastructure.
Opposition parties are gearing up aggressively. The uMkhonto weSizwe party (MK), led by Jacob Zuma, aims to capitalise on its 2024 surge, positioning itself as the largest black-led force by 2026. Economic headwinds will amplify the political stakes.
South Africa’s economy shows tentative recovery signs, with third-quarter 2025 GDP growth at 0.5% and an IMF upgrade forecasting a 1.5%-2% expansion in 2026 The DA, under Helen Zille’s influence, has interviewed professional candidates — accountants and lawyers — with competence and anti-corruption abilities to be filed as mayoral candidates. In Gauteng, the DA eyes outright control of Johannesburg, banking on black middle-class disillusionment with the ANC.
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