WANDILE SIHLOBO | SA’s 2025-26 winter crop production estimate slashed once more

South Africa’s 2025-26 winter crop harvest process is virtually over. This crop was planted in May 2025. The focus in the country is now on the 2025-26 summer crop season, which is still at its early stages, having been planted from October 2025.

Still, we continue to receive the assessment of the harvest estimate for the 2025-26 winter crop. In recent months, the data have shown downward revisions. In its sixth production estimate, the Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) lowered South Africa’s 2025-26 winter crop once again to 2.66 million tonnes, down 2% from the December 2025 estimates.

The current harvest is almost aligned with the 2024-25 season’s harvest. This estimate comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. The recent downward revision was mainly in wheat, oats, and sweet lupines; meanwhile, canola and barley were roughly unchanged.

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If we consider wheat, a major winter crop, the 2025-26 harvest is now estimated at 1.93 million tonnes, down 3% from the December 2025 estimate, and generally in line with the previous season’s crop. The recent declines were mainly in the Western Cape, a major wheat-producing province, due to unfavourable weather conditions in some parts of the province. Meanwhile, other significant wheat-producing provinces, such as the Northern Cape, Free State, and Limpopo, expect larger harvests than in the 2024-25 season.

A potential wheat harvest of 1.93 million tonnes implies that South Africa may need to import approximately 1.75 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season to meet our annual needs. These imports are expected to be down 5% from the 2024-25 season due to decent opening stocks from the previous season. The import activity will not be a significant challenge, given ample global wheat supplies.

The International Grains Council forecasts a record 2025-26 global wheat harvest of 842 million tonnes, up 5% from the previous season. This is on the back of an ample harvest in the EU, Russia, the US, Canada, Australia, Argentina, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Given ample global supplies and moderate usage, the 2025-26 global wheat stocks are forecast at 283 million tonnes, up 7% from the previous season.

Thus, global wheat prices are likely to remain under pressure for some time due to large stocks. With the domestic wheat production figures we have at hand, combined with ample global wheat supplies, we view the situation as boding well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation. However, from the farmers’ perspective, this is a challenge.

It is worth noting that increases in domestic wheat production costs over time, and the fact that some farmers had to replant in the Western Cape at the start of the season due to snail infestations, imply financial pressures on some. Essentially, the generally lower prices, while beneficial to consumers, put pressure on farmers. This remains a significant challenge for the domestic wheat industry; as a result, there have been calls for higher import tariffs.

South Africa has an import tariff that seeks to strike a balance between the welfare of farmers and consumers. Adjustments to import tariffs are generally influenced by international wheat prices, amongst other factors. Beyond the wheat matters, the CEC forecast South Africa’s 2025-26 barley harvest at 350 730 tonnes, unchanged from last month and 6% lower than the previous season.

This is due to both the decline in area plantings and poor yields in some regions. Regarding canola, the 2025-26 production is forecast at 311,850 tonnes, unchanged from last month and 7% up from the previous season. The annual gains are primarily due to increased area plantings.

South Africa’s 2025-26 oats production is forecast at 45,143 tonnes, down 7% from last month. Still, this is up 4% from the previous year, due to increased area plantings. Also worth highlighting is that South Africa’s 2025-26 sweet lupine harvest is forecast at 18,900 tonnes, down 10% from last month and 2% lower than the previous year.

Overall, South Africa’s 2025-26 winter crop harvest is complete, and the yields in some regions are more disappointing than anticipated a few months ago. Still, this doesn’t mean there are upside price pressures for consumers. The ample global wheat harvest and other grains are adding downward pressure on prices.

However, the other challenge posed by ample global supplies is the tight margins for farmers. Thus, a careful balance of the domestic wheat import tariff remains part of the policy discussion and consideration by the authorities.

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