During his visit to Japan in August 2025, President Cyril Ramaphosa made a very important foreign policy statement. As he sought to diversify South Africa’s trade relations amid the threats from US President Donald Trump, Ramaphosa stated that South Africa didn’t choose sides between Japan and China but loved both and embraced economic ties with them. Japan and China occasionally rub each other the wrong way.
Their mistrust dates to the Japanese invasion of China during World War 2. But South Africa’s decision to slice through their frosty relations and carve its own path suggests its foreign policy strategies are not as linear as they might seem. Its building of foreign relations is not binary.
There are lobbyists who would wish South Africa to commit to exclusive friendships with some countries at the expense of others. That would be simplistic and naïve. In foreign and domestic policies, South Africa has been perceived as a fragile, vulnerable state, pursuing conflicting interests.
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Some have even argued its foreign policy positions on various issues — its response to Israel’s destruction of Gaza or its posture within Brics-plus countries, for example — are detrimental to its interests. They cite grumpiness from Washington but miss the point that the US has growing commercial interests in South Africa totally unrelated to Israel. The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act trade deal that the House of Representatives has approved for extension is not a one-sided trade arrangement.
America gains from it too. Since South Africa launched the genocide case at the International Court of Justice, it has attracted many nations that have shown support, without abandoning relations with countries opposed to this decision. Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney made a brave speech at the World Economic Forum about that rupture that has taken place in the international system.
He is now driving a diversification strategy, similar to Ramaphosa’s. Ramaphosa and Carney’s unhappiness with Trump’s strategies don’t mean that they are cutting ties with the US. They are not shortsighted.
However, Trump is pushing them to diversify and build up “insurance” of economic ties while insisting on mutually beneficial relations with America. Long before South Africa and Canada shot into prominence for their emerging pragmatic strategies, Turkey had been at it. President Erdogan is a shining example of how to operate like a juggler.
Turkey has the second biggest army in Nato and, after Trump, Europeans rely on the Turkish army to defeat Russians in case of conflict. Yet, Turkey simultaneously helps Russian oligarchs bypass sanctions and remains a favourite destination for Russian tourists. In the meantime, Erdogan’s son-in-law is selling drones to Ukraine.
The Turkish model proves that hard power and diplomatic flexibility are not mutually exclusive. Erdogan has positioned Turkish friendship as a stable strategic asset. He changed the Turkish foreign policy doctrine from “Peace at Home, Peace in the World” to “Power at Home, Pragmatism in the World.” This is the “Strange Attractor” — a bridge everyone is forced to cross.
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