Surge of imports and lack of EV readiness disrupts the automotive industry

Since the start of 2026, many automotive legacy brands have been talking about the disruptions facing the South African motoring industry. The two key disturbances manufacturers have noted are the number of sales of imported vehicles in the past year and the country’s readiness to adopt new-energy vehicles (NEVs). Presenting Toyota South Africa’s manufacturing figures recently, chief-executive Andrew Kirby stressed the importance of having a good balance between imported vehicles and knocked-down vehicles on the country’s roads, while warning against an over-reliance on imports.

“They create a vibrant market that brings in a lot of different styles of vehicles that our customers need. We can’t expect to produce everything in South Africa. That would be an unrealistic expectation but do we have a good balance?” Kirby said at a Toyota state of the motoring industry event.

In 2025, of the 609 000 vehicles produced in South Africa, most of them — 411 000 — were exported. That means that only 32% of vehicles manufactured in the country are sold here. Vehicle imports from China made up 22% of all vehicle imports into the country in 2024, up 368% from 2020.

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Last month, the department of trade, industry and competition warned about possible higher tariffs for imported vehicles, suggesting that South Africa raise the 25% fee to 50%. Kirby said that while that would boost local vehicle makers, the issue should be dealt with carefully, improving the competitiveness of manufacturing in a “fiscally neutral way”. “We are not suggesting a big blunt instrument to suddenly correct this.

What we are suggesting is tweaking and small changes on a variety of different elements that can improve our competitiveness,” he said. In January, BMW chief executive Peter van Binsbergen was similarly cautious, saying a 50% tariff would be a shock to the system and could introduce unintended consequences. He suggested fine-tuning measurements in the Automotive Production and Development Programme (APDP) to encourage real production in South Africa.

“Essentially, we need to make it viable for more brands to come to South Africa and then they become part of the solution,” Van Binsbergen said. Policy changes around NEVs in Europe and the UK could affect South African exports negatively, Toyota’s Kirby said.

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