Picture showing damages to the port of La Guaira, Venezuela, after a US military operation that led to the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, on January 3, 2026. (Photo by Pedro MATTEY / AFP) After President Donald Trump’s audacious strike to arrest Venezuela leader Nicolas Maduro, US enemies and friends are wondering who might be next in his sights as he moves to impose American will by force around the world. Local diplomatic experts, though, don’t believe South Africa – which is in the midst of a souring of relations with Washington – could feel the wrath of US military might because if Trump wants to punish this country, he will do it through economic measures and not the barrel of a gun.
Prof Theo Neethling from the University of Free State said: “South Africa is geopolitically distant from the US and not a major economic or strategic priority for Washington. “However, punitive economic measures could be imposed if the SA government were to act in ways perceived as contrary to US global interests. “In this context, Pretoria would be well advised to proceed cautiously in managing its diplomatic relations with both the US and actors viewed by Washington as adversaries,” he said.
Neethling said he believed the attack on Venezuela was about oil: “Venezuela’s modern oil industry was not organically built by the Venezuelan state, but was largely constructed in the early and mid20th century by foreign capital, above all by US oil companies.” The 1976 nationalisation of the industry “is a major issue from Trump’s point of view when he referred to taking back Venezuela’s oil”. Although US military action in other countries is nothing new, the case of Venezuela is different because Trump did not consult with any of the relevant domestic authorities before taking action. “It also suggests to me that Trump is departing from soft power politics, where diplomacy in one form or another was present in previous decades,” Neethling said. Trump described the raid to seize leftist Maduro as an update of the Monroe Doctrine, the 1823 declaration by fifth US president James Monroe that Latin America was closed to other powers, then meaning Europe.
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