Several positive developments lifted investor sentiment in South Africa, such as the country’s exit from the greylist, an improved fiscal outlook presented in the 2025 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, the announcement of a new 3% inflation target and an upgrade of South Africa’s foreign currency sovereign credit rating by S&P Global Ratings, the first in two decades. Easing global trade tensions and higher commodity prices, especially for gold and platinum group metals (PGMs), supported the exchange value of the rand, while the continued rally in domestic share and bond prices contributed to positive wealth effects. The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) shared this news in itslatest Quarterly Bulletin, a key publication that provides detailed economic statistics, an analysis of South Africa’s economy, financial market data and articles on economic trends.
The key findings in the Quarterly Bulletin include: #1: Economic activityin South Africa continued to expand in the third quarter of 2025, although the growth rate in real gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to 0.5% from a revised 0.9% in the second quarter. The moderation reflected slower growth across the primary and tertiary sectors, while the secondary sector experienced a slight contraction. Growth in real gross value added(GVA) in the primary sector was driven by sustained increases in both agriculture and mining, albeit at a slower pace.
Agricultural output was supported by higher yields in field crops and horticultural and animal products, despite ongoing challenges such as animal disease outbreaks and rising input costs. Mining production also benefitted from stronger external demand for certain commodities, improved logistics and higher commodity prices, particularly for PGMs. Growth in real gross domestic expendituremoderated from 1.3% in the second quarter of 2025 to 0.9% in the third quarter, reflecting slower growth in both household and government consumption expenditure.
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However, real gross fixed capital formation returned to growth in the third quarter, alongside further accumulation of real inventory holdings. Growth in real final consumption expenditure by householdsslowed slightly to 0.7% in the third quarter of 2025, in line with the slower growth in their real disposable income. Spending on durable goods rose sharply, supported by the stable exchange value of the rand, subdued consumer price inflation for durable goods and lower interest rates.
The ratio of household debt to disposable incomeedged lower to 61.6% in the third quarter of 2025 from 62.1% in the previous quarter, as household debt increased at a slightly slower pace than nominal disposable income. Households’ cost of servicing debt relative to disposable income fell to 8.5% from 8.7% over this period. Households’ net worthcontinued to improve in the third quarter of 2025, as the market value of their total assets increased more rapidly than their total liabilities.
The rise in assets was largely due to a notable increase in share prices, as both domestic and global equity prices rallied, with the FTSE/JSE All-Share Index reaching new all-time highs after surging by 11.9% in the third quarter. The value of housing stock also rose further as residential property prices continued to increase.
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