Amid the degraded and drought-stricken landscapes, where water scarcity has led to agriculture being replaced by upmarket residential estates and guesthouses, we meet those who have not yet given up on the Southern Karoo drylands. Upon arriving at my guesthouse in drought-prone Prince Albert I could not help but notice the sprinklers spraying water on a green lawn surrounded by dry and dusty veld. The guesthouse owner told me she was fighting a losing battle, with temperatures in the late thirties.
Lawns are probably not a good idea in an arid zone, even if they satisfy the suburban aesthetics of wealthy tourists. I learnt that 120 guesthouses in the town draw on the town’s water supply to wash the towels and linen of the thousands of visitors who pass through the town. On our first morning in Prince Albert I woke up at 5.30am and decided to go for a run.
I stepped outside onto the stoep overlooking a parched landscape of dead shrubs and bushes. On the guesthouse lawn were four Cape hares grazing the lush green grass. This quiet and serene moment ended when my dog Rosa burst onto the scene, provoking the hares to dart off into the desiccated veld.
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Although I had been critical of the guesthouse owner’s water-guzzling lawn, the hares clearly regarded the grass as helpful for surviving this latest deadly drought. The local ecologist Dr Sue Milton-Dean told me that she had tried to persuade residents and guesthouse owners to plant their lawns with drought-resistant, diverse indigenous plants. In an article in the Prince Albert Friend, she advised residents to “plant diverse indigenous gardens – the more diverse and ‘unmanaged’ the garden, the more the food and nooks and crannies there are for insects and birds that eat them… Roses and lawns support little diversity and need much attention [and water]”.
Sue leads walks through the reserve to create awareness among tourists and young people about ecological sustainability, biodiversity and the challenges of veld restoration in the badly damaged Karoo landscape. In 2008, with her husband, Sue established theRenu-Karoo Veld Restorationproject in Prince Albert. In addition to supplying plants for landscaping and gardens, Renu-Karoo does contract growing of Karoo plants for the medicinal and aromatic plant industries and for special projects.
This involves providing plants, seeds and consulting services to companies and individuals engaged in efforts to restore damaged Karoo veld. When I met Sue on a previous field trip with my students, she told us that the area was becoming a desert and that it should probably no longer be used for agriculture. In January 2026, the town was once again in the midst of a serious drought, and Sue told us that duikers and other animals were dying in the veld and commercial agriculture was struggling.
Sue recalled that when she first arrived in the town in the late 1980s, she was able to buy locally produced vegetables and fruit. Now she has to buy everything from the local supermarket. Even the once-successful olive and wine production businesses were closing down due to water problems.
In the place of agriculture are upmarket residential estates and guesthouses. Once-functioning food-producing farms were being subdivided into real estate for the wealthy. Since the start of the 20th century, Prince Albert has had three serious drought episodes – in the 1930s, 1960s and from 2015 to 2022.
The most recent drought cycle was followed by two years of relatively good rainfall for this arid zone. It is now feared that the town is entering yet another drought cycle. Water scarcity in a town that has averaged 170mm of rain annually over the past 120 years has contributed to a sharp decline in agriculture.
Prince Albert’s tourism boom with its many upmarket restaurants, art galleries, coffee shops, guesthouses, jazz, art and cultural festivals has exacerbated water scarcity in the town. Tourism is literally sucking the town dry and killing agriculture. Yet, paradoxically, tourism also drives the local economy and is a major employer.
The Witwatersrand University geographer Stefan Grabrecently noted that historical droughts in the Karoohave been highly variable in severity. For instance, in 1897, certain areas in the Karoo experienced severe drought while other parts received near normal rainfall. Using long-term historical rainfall records, Grab shows how 19th century droughts over parts of the interior of southern Africa were spatially and temporally complex and at times resulted in widespread drought across the entire region, whereas at other times it was confined to only one sub-region.
Grab has also found that multiyear and severe droughts in the Karoo have decreased in frequency and amplitude (rainfall deficit) during the past two centuries. Grab’s findings also suggest that the El Niño-linked “global drought” of 1877-78 was the most hydrologically severe two-year drought in some, but not all, parts of the Karoo. This long-term perspective suggests spatial variability is likely to continue to characterise the rainfall patterns of the Karoo.
Similarly, climate scientists believe that the western part of the Karoo is likely to become drier while the eastern part will probably experience higher rainfall. Unpredictable climatic and rain patterns will no doubt continue well into the future in these drylands. Milton-Dean notes that Grab was not able to include temperature in his drought assessments because there is no long-term temperature database.
Increasing temperatures cause drought conditions even when rainfall remains the same. The South African Weather Service’sbleak prediction for Prince Albert for March to May 2026suggests that there is likely to be 40% less-than-normal rain, and 50% above normal temperature. The consequences of this for rainfall and water supply are alarming.
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