Just a fortnight into the new year and it’s clear that Flight 2026 needs to come with an upgraded safety briefing and a warning label. Last year, we saw the upending of a long-established world trade order built around finding mutual interests and reciprocity, with ripple effects on trading relationships and geo-strategic positioning as countries responded to protect their economic interests. Over the festive season, usually a slow news period, it has been hard to switch-off from events in the faraway Caribbean and the US.
The system of international law and agreed conventions — also something built over time by reaching consensus among competing interests — has been thrown into turmoil. It is interesting to note that these upheavals come as the United Nations celebrates its 80th anniversary this year, and never before in its history has the effectiveness of the global body’s role in forging co-operation, agreement and peace among nations been more called into question. Clearly, any form of global “politeness” in terms of diplomacy, trading relationships, multilateral co-operation and general adherence to established norms and conventions, is now out the window.
The system may not have been perfect, but it did at least provide some certainty. Many local manufacturers, the bedrock of employment, are highly integrated into global supply chains. They are impacted by rising political tensions, conflicts and shifting trading relationships around the world, with decisions on manufacturing operations and production locations often made in faraway global headquarters.
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Global events thus do have local impact, rippling from the major manufacturers into impact on their supply chains and associated employment. This week, the review of the African Growth and Opportunity Act resumes in the US and given current tensions, it is difficult to believe that a positive outcome will be achieved for SA.
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