Opinion | Iran war: U.S.’s and Israel’s goals differ

Donald Trump’s vision for how the war against Iran should end is simple: “Unconditional surrender!” Wait, no! Trump also wanted a veto on who would be Iran’s next leader, although, as he said: “The attack was so successful that it eliminated most of the candidates. It won’t be someone we thought of because they’re all dead.” [Iran’s Assembly of Experts has appointed Mojtaba Khamenei (56) as the country’s third supreme leader.

He succeeds his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.] Israel’s preferred outcome is more complex. At a pinch, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would settle for regime change that brings a friendly government to power in Tehran. However, he would certainly prefer a number of post-Iran ethnic successor states that are too consumed with sorting out their new borders to have time for conspiring against Israel.

As for Iran, the regime of the ayatollahs is in pure survival mode. Will they use that time to make a deal with Trump? Different goals require different strategies, and there is a gulf between the Americans and the Israelis that will soon become visible.

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Being (apparently) omnipotent is fun and Trump is enjoying the ride, but as usual, he is looking for a quick victory and a “deal”. It doesn’t matter to him if, as in Venezuela, it’s a deal that leaves most of the “bad guys” in power. Trump has already said so himself.

The “candidates” he accidentally “eliminated” with the bombing were all members of the regime; he just hasn’t found the Iranian version of Delcy Rodríguez yet. But he needs to find that person soon, or he will be going into the U.S. mid-term elections in November with a crippled economy and a live war on his hands.

Netanyahu, by contrast, wants the war to continue until Iran is crushed and the reign of the ayatollahs is terminated, and the vast majority of Israelis agree. He is a very persuasive man, especially where Trump is concerned. He talked him into this “war of choice”, but three months from now, Trump will be desperate to get out of it.

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