ANC flag outside Luthuli House. Picture: Michel Bega Frenchman Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr hit the bull’s-eye when he coined the saying: “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” Political analysts have all been singing from the same hymn book concerning the fortunes of the “dying” ruling party, the ANC. The country waited with bated breath for the moment that the ANC would drop below 50% of the overall national vote to confirm its death.
That moment came in May last year but, somehow, the ANC hung on to power, technically only losing just one province, KwaZulu-Natal as the Western Cape has been lost for two decades already. Although the ANC dropped from 57% to just over 40%, it remains in power as part of the government of national unity (GNU). A huge indication that the death of the ANC has been greatly exaggerated is that competition for the pound seats within the “dead” movement remains very fierce.
The battle to replace the incumbent president, Cyril Ramaphosa, would not be as intense if his position wasn’t viewed as one of real power. Every day, a new name seems to join secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, deputy president Paul Mashatile and outsider, mining billionaire Patrice Motsepe, in the race for the ANC presidency. Last week saw the defeat of Johannesburg mayor Dada Morero by the city’s MMC for finance, Loyiso Masuku, in the battle to lead the Johannesburg region of the ANC.
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This battle alone is seen as a proxy for the battle to lead the movement nationally. Masuku, the wife of former Gauteng health MEC Bandile Masuku is aligned with the faction that backs the ANC’s and the country’s Deputy President Paul Mashatile.
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