Most military experts agree that modern warfare is undergoing a profound transformation driven by the rapid rise of drone technology. All signs suggest this evolution will continue to accelerate as the military capacity for drone warfare grows faster than the ability to defend against it. The miniaturisation and cost reduction of drone components has led to an enormous increase in the deployment of more autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles for both reconnaissance and attack.
As a result, both the frontlines and rear areas, stretching for tens of kilometres, have become increasingly vulnerable. Naturally, countering such threats is now a central focus of military operations, and future wars are likely to revolve around the struggle for “drone superiority” in the skies, requiring armed forces, and defence budgets, to reorganise around this new objective. The Russian military has already announced a dedicated service branch for unmanned systems.
Others will follow suit. Perhaps the most consequential effect of this revolution has been the unprecedented visibility drones enable, which has effectively removed the “fog of war”. This trend can only intensify, with hardware and software developments leading towards ever-increasing battlefield transparency.
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The war in Ukraine already illustrates this new reality, with forces dispersed widely and operating at extremely low densities by historical standards. The enhanced ability to detect, identify and precisely strike targets has made concentrated troop formations and concealed manoeuvres almost impossible, fundamentally altering how military strategists plan their campaigns. The widespread use of unmanned aerial vehicles is resulting in a new form of remote warfare, where co-ordination and execution occur at unlimited range from the front lines.
In the long run this could result in fewer human casualties as drones, lasers and robots do battle while tanks, men and artillery are relegated to the sidelines. That said, if the human cost of war declines, conflicts risk becoming less politically costly, leading to a waste of more money, talent and resources, even if more soldiers’ lives are spared. Societies could be tempted to deploy drone and robot armies, which may not produce as many casualties but would still consume enormous economic resources.
Drones have already changed the face of combat, with battlefield transparency dispersing troop formations and eliminating the need for line-of-sight fire in favour of indirect fire. This has created new tactics and procurement requirements for modern militaries. For centuries military power has been based on line-of-sight weaponry, with command structures designing tactics to perceive and strike the enemy directly.
But drones can identify and attack targets far beyond the range of human sight, giving these remote and dispersed indirect-fire systems far greater survivability than weapons such as tanks. Since World War 2 tanks have embodied the concept of protected, line-of-sight firepower. Yet in today’s combat environment they are highly visible and easily targeted.
As such, the tank’s historical role in breakthrough and manoeuvre warfare might become redundant. Efforts to preserve the tank’s relevance by adding active protection systems or equipping them with long-range munitions have failed to justify their enormous cost, and it remains uncertain what strategic value the heavily armoured but increasingly vulnerable vehicles still provide. Traditional artillery faces a similar dilemma. Though Russia’s enormous artillery output has seemingly restored its prominence, the economics of using expensive guns and ammunition for missions drones can perform more cheaply and precisely has been called into question.
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