Murder and rape data nothing to praise

On the face of it, a decline of 10% in the murder rate – over a three-month period, year-on-year – seems like something to be lauded. Yet, when you look at the raw figures, you realise South Africa is still one of the worst countries in the world, outside full-on war zones, when it comes to citizens slaughtering each other. Boil it down and the shocking reality is that, on average, three people get murdered every hour in this country.

That means, every 20 minutes, a person is deliberately put to death by someone else, not killed in an accident, car crash or from disease. Police statistics, released recently comparing the October to December 2024 period with the same three months last year, also revealed another horrifying fact: there is one reported rape every 12 minutes. While you let that sink in, consider that when it comes to rape, the majority of cases do not result in a survivor going to the cops to lay a charge.

Saps crime registrar Major-General Thulare Sekhukhune believes it is good to see the murder statistics falling after being on the rise for decades. But crime and forensics experts don’t share his optimism – not only because the numbers of murders are still unacceptably high, but because conviction rates are appallingly low. This is not, the experts say, a reflection on the ability of the National Prosecuting Authority, which has a fairly high conviction rate because it will only go to court with those cases where there is a reasonable prospect of conviction.

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The overall low conviction rate for both murder and rape contributes to a building culture of impunity. Bringing back the death penalty for murder won’t help, either, and would make perpetrators more ruthless when it comes to removing evidence and witnesses.

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