The Mozambican government expects the country’s economy to start reversing the recession it has faced since 2024, as early as the first quarter, following post-election unrest. “In 2024, the country experienced post-election tensions that resulted in the destruction of socio-economic infrastructure. The productive sector was affected, with costs amounting, under normal circumstances, to hundreds of millions of dollars,” recalled the Secretary of State for the Treasury and Budget after the weekly meeting of the Council of Ministers on Tuesday morning in Maputo.
Speaking to journalists to explain the government’s decision to pay 40% of the 2025 13th salary to state employees and pensioners by February, compared with 50% in 2025, Tivane said the executive compared the initial economic growth forecasts for 2025, which stood at 3.6% of gross domestic product (GDP), with end-of-year estimates. “We will continue to work towards managing macroeconomic policy to support the recovery trajectory of the economy because, as I said, we are in a technical recession and our expectation is that from the first quarter we will record positive quarterly growth rates and perhaps move closer to the target for real GDP growth in 2026,” he explained. The Secretary of State recalled that in the last quarter of 2024, a period marked by intense social unrest, demonstrations and protests following the general elections of 9 October that year, the country recorded “negative growth of around 6%” in GDP.
This scenario also resulted in a decline in growth of 3.9% in the first quarter of 2025, 1.9% in the second quarter and 0.9% in the third quarter. “We are in negative territory. We have a recession that, over time, is becoming (…) less pronounced.
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And our expectation is that the economy will grow rapidly, at around 2.9% in 2026,” he said, noting that the government is still awaiting the final statistics for the last quarter of last year. “All that we know so far is that the recession has been becoming less pronounced, and this is how we project an economic growth rate for 2025 of around 3.2%. Initially we had projected 3.6%, but as new information was incorporated into our projection matrix, we had to revise it slightly downwards, exercising some prudence in our projections, because this also determines the financial envelope within which the economy will operate in the following fiscal year,” he concluded.
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