Job creation for 4th industrial revolution

For decades, governments worldwide treated manufacturing as the surest path to mass employment. That assumption is now unravelling as artificial intelligence, automation and machine learning are transforming production, sharply reducing the work force needed on factory floors. For countries like Malawi, the implications are increasingly unavoidable.

A 1981 World Bank assessment on the development of Malawi’s manufacturing industry warned that industrial growth would struggle to generate jobs at scale. The report highlighted a narrow industrial base, dependence on imported inputs, limited domestic demand, and production structures poorly matched to Malawi’s labour-abundant economy. Manufacturing expanded, but employment gains remained modest.

Over 40 years later, World Bank analyses, including the Malawi Economic Monitor, show that manufacturing still employs only a small share of the workforce, while most Malawians remain trapped in low-productivity activities. The promise that factories would absorb growing numbers of job seekers has proven elusive. Leading development economists now openly question whether manufacturing can still play the role it once did.

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Dani Rodrik has argued that many developing countries, including Malawi, are experiencing “premature deindustrialisation,” where manufacturing peaks at much lower levels of employment than in the past, partly because technology has made production more capital- and skill-intensive. Joseph Stiglitz, meanwhile, has stressed that economic strategies amid rapid technological change must focus on learning, human capabilities and inclusive growth, where human labour remains central and difficult to automate. In the AI era, economic transformation no longer guarantees mass employment.

Growth can occur without jobs. For Malawi, this reality does not overturn a once-successful model—it reinforces structural weaknesses identified decades ago. If manufacturing cannot serve as Malawi’s main employment engine, what can?

Two sectors often treated as secondary—education and tourism—deserve a central place in Malawi’s economic strategy. Both are inherently human-intensive, geographically inclusive, and resilient to automation.

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