Is Ethiopia heading back to war in Tigray?

Fears of a return to war in northern Ethiopia are driving many people to leave the region of Tigray just over three years after the civil war there ended. “Those who can afford it fly, those who can’t use buses,” one person in the main city of Mekelle told the BBC – going on to explain how large numbers of young people were heading to the capital, Addis Ababa. The prices of goods are rocketing as people stock up on essentials and a run on the banks has meant there is now a daily limit on cash withdrawals of around 2,000 birr ($13; £10) per person.

With cash shortages reminiscent of the brutal two-year conflict that ended in November 2022, those wanting to making big transfers often have to pay extra charges to do them electronically. The civil war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) saw an estimated 600,000 people killed, according to an envoy from the African Union (AU), and the region driven to the precipice of famine. So great fanfare and relief greeted the agreement that was brokered by the AU in November 2022.

After it was signed in South Africa’s capital, Pretoria, the guns were silenced, basic services were restored and normality began to return to Tigray. However, fears were immediately raised over the absence of two of the warring parties from the signing ceremony: Eritrea, which borders Tigray to the north. Its forces had fought alongside the Ethiopian army for control of the region Amhara, a region which neighbours Tigray to the west and whose fighters also fought on the side of the Ethiopian army. In the early weeks of the war they seized land in the agriculturally rich area of western Tigray, which remains a source of dispute.