Iran only needs to survive this war

On Saturday, Feb 28, 2026, the President of the United States of America Donald J. Trump did the unthinkable. It was an act that will echo and vibrate in the annals of history for generations to come.

In more than five hundred strikes, the US/Israeli military dropped missiles on Iran targeting many prominent leaders, people and institutions. Most importantly, just hours after those attacks the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, gave a press briefing in which he said that “all significant signs showed that the strikes had killed Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran”. This announcement was followed by a post on Truth Social from the US President himself, confirming the news that the Ayatollah had been killed by an Israeli/US operation Epic Fury.

And almost immediately – and within 24 hours of the attack, the Iranian state media confirmed the development. This was a shocking blow to many and thousands took to the streets in mourning a man they had long held in high esteem as a spiritual leader and political figure. However, there were other people who were very happy about this news and could not help but celebrate the demise of the Supreme Leader.

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This is a testament of the divergent views and complexities within Iranian society. But needless to say, from the beginning; the United States and Israel have demonstrated that this war has nothing to do with the Iran nuclear program, which was the initial excuse or perhaps the lie that President Trump attempted to use for telling the world why America was going to war with Iran. There is no doubt that difficult days lie ahead of the global order as we know it since the end of World War II.

Clearly, the USA has set a very dangerous precedent in terms of not abiding by international law, the rules-based order and respect for international institutions such as the United Nations, the International Criminal Court, etc. The kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela is a classic example of such unwarranted actions from the United States. And much worse, the unconstitutional war against Iran by President Trump without seeking Congress’s approval and without going to the United Nations’ Security Council.

Therefore, only three possible assumptions make sense as to why President Trump even considered going to war with Iran. Firstly this war is absolutely one of choice instigated by hubris from the United States, because of the so-called successful operation in Venezuela. Hence, after what happened in Caracas, as the US military descended on Maduro and captured him – President Trump was both shocked in disbelief and also impressed by the might of the American military.

This excited the US President to think that he can just do a quick operation in Iran with limited strikes. Unfortunately, this cannot be further from the truth and at best it is a worse miscalculation that will potentially haunt the Trump presidency long after he leaves office. Even though the United States likes to boast that its military is the greatest on earth, such a statement is not exactly accurate because the American military is the most expensive and advanced, not necessarily the greatest.

In fact, technological superiority can be a liability in a war such as this one, it is too expensive and you cannot afford to lose it. Therefore, you become risk averse while the other side has nothing to lose. Just a few days ago, at the start of this war, both Israel together with the US fired 11 interceptors at a single Iranian missile, spending roughly about $11 million to $33 million to try and shoot down a missile worth $100,000 – and failed.

Actually, the US President will do well to find an off -ramp or excuse to stop the bombings and end this war before it is too late. However, Iran does not need to “win” this war by any means – all they have to do is just survive it. The notion that war is about guns and missiles and overwhelming force is absolutely misplaced.

Not long ago, the US Secretary of War publicly bragged about how the US air force will soon take over the Iranian air space and “control everything”. He thinks that by taking over the air space in Iran, this would amount to some sort of victory. Clearly, Secretary Pete Hegseth has a lot to learn about war – and Vietnam would be a good starting point.

The military doctrine of shock and awe and controlling a country’s air space is not what wins wars, it’s the people’s will and determination. The United States controlled the air space of North Vietnam for as long as the war lasted but the peasant rice farmers of North Vietnam defeated the Americans and forced them to flee after 30 years of fighting for their homeland. Surely, Iran will put everything into this war and will ensure that they see it to the end, which is the most likely outcome because most factors in this war favour Iran in the long term.

It’s unthinkable to imagine that the US can fight a war of attrition in Iran with only precision strikes. That is not possible at all. The war will be very costly to the US Treasury and to human life.

Right now, in the early days of the war, it is projected that the US is spending roughly about $1 billion a day. This is not sustainable in the long run. Another disadvantage for America is simply the fact that Iran’s fortress landscape of mountains will be nothing but a death trap for US troops if they invade Iran.

They will have no supply of basic necessities which soldiers need desperately for war and they will have to rely on air supply, which would make them vulnerable to the locals who know and understand Iran’s terrain. This is why the Foreign Affairs in Iran boldly stated that if the Americans decide to put troops on the ground “we are waiting and we will be ready for them”. In the final analysis, the United States and Israel will do well to quickly realise that Iran cannot be easily fragmented into regional factions like they did with Libya, Syria and Iraq.

And it is not even possible to bomb Iran into submission. Thus, talk of unconditional surrender by President Trump is just a sheer waste of time for the Iranians. These people will fight this war to the bitter end, even if it means sacrificing everything for the cause.

So, before things get too complicated, the US should withdraw from this war of choice and give peace a chance. In the meantime, Iran will absorb all the bombings and destabilisation with one clear objective, which is nothing but to ensure survival while retaliating in defense of the homeland.

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