The Meteorological Services Department says there is a high probability that Zimbabwe could experience an El Niño weather pattern during the 2026/27 rainy season raising fears of below-normal rainfall and possible drought conditions. In a preliminary statement, the department said global climate forecasting centres were indicating an 88% to 94% chance of an El Niño event developing later this year. Historically, El Niño conditions in Zimbabwe have often been associated with reduced rainfall, poor harvests and water shortages.
The weather agency said there was a 65% likelihood of below-normal rainfall during the coming agricultural season although it stressed that forecasts remained uncertain. “Forecasts made this early in the year face a ‘spring predictability barrier’, meaning atmospheric and oceanic conditions could still change significantly before the season begins,” the department said. Authorities said no final national seasonal forecast had yet been issued and urged policy makers, farmers and businesses not to make major decisions based solely on the preliminary outlook.
A more detailed national forecast is expected after the Southern African Development Community Climate Outlook Forum later this year. The department said the updated report would include more recent scientific data to improve the accuracy of seasonal planning. Despite the uncertainty, the Meteorological Services Department urged communities to begin preparing for the possibility of dry conditions by adopting climate-resilient practices. These include water conservation measures and the use of drought-tolerant seed varieties.
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