Government has revised the mining sector growth forecast downward, citing sharp declines in international prices for key minerals such as platinum group metals (PGMs) and lithium,Business Timescan report The mining sector, which contributes around 12% to Zimbabwe’s GDP, was initially projected to grow by 5.6% in 2025 However, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube announced in the 2025 Mid-Term Budget and Economic Review that growth is now expected at just 2.9% “Resultantly, the mining sector is now expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, downward from the initial projection of 5.6%, mainly on account of reduced output in PGMs and lithium owing to significantly lower international mineral prices compromising mining activities,” Ncube said
The global commodity slump has particularly hit PGMs, with palladium and rhodium suffering the most “In 2025, major minerals of the PGMs are projected to experience a significant decline compared to 2024 levels, primarily due to continued drop in international mineral commodity prices, especially for palladium and rhodium,” the minister added According to government projections, platinum output is expected to fall from 18,910.90 kg in 2024 to 17,539.60 kg in 2025 Palladium will dip from 15,603.22 kg to 14,244.33 kg
In the first quarter of 2025 alone, platinum, palladium and rhodium output contracted by 16.2%, 17.5%, and 9.5% respectively compared to the same period last year The lithium sub-sector, which had previously been hailed as a strategic growth pillar, is also in decline Global oversupply and evolving battery technologies have weighed heavily on prices “Lithium production is expected to decline to 350,034 metric tons in 2025, primarily on account of depressed international lithium prices,” Ncube said
“Lithium prices are projected to continue to decline throughout the year, driven by a global oversupply and the growing adoption of alternative battery chemistries like lithium iron phosphate (LFP), which use less lithium Technological advancements in battery design are further contributing to reduced demand pressures which in turn affect price,” he added Lithium production plummeted by a staggering 60% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 Despite these setbacks, gold remains the bright spot in Zimbabwe’s mineral outlook
With global prices surging to record highs, gold has cemented its position as the mining sector’s anchor for 2025 “Gold has remained strong globally, with prices persistently rising throughout the first half This upward trend has been driven by factors such as central bank stockpiling, investor demand and on-going economic uncertainties that have reinforced gold’s role as a safe-haven asset,” Ncube said The government is banking on gold to offset some of the revenue shortfalls caused by the underperformance of PGMs and lithium
However, the overall slowdown in mining output raises concerns about export earnings and fiscal stability in the months ahead As global markets continue to shift, Zimbabwe’s mining sector faces mounting pressure to diversify its mineral portfolio, invest in value addition, and build resilience against volatile commodity cycles Source: Business Times
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Source: Businesstimes
