Two years ago, economists said a gold price of $3 000 per ounce was far out of reach. A year ago, the gold price was just $2 600, but then volatile geopolitics started driving it higher: first past $3 000 and then past $4 000, prompting economists to consider whether $5 000 is possible. Well, here is our answer.
This morning, the gold price crossed the psychological line of $5 000 for the first time ever and is now trading at $5 074.48. The rand is also doing well, currently trading at R16.08. Maarten Ackerman, chief economist at Citadel, says as we enter 2026, the geopolitical chess game is picking up momentum, especially with US President Donald Trump’s involvement in Venezuela and the talks around the invasion of Greenland.
“All of that is causing a lot of uncertainty and putting pressure on the dollar. As a result of that, it is a continuation of what we saw last year, where the gold price is acting as a safe haven, the reason why the gold price is doing extremely well this year. “Again, it is not only gold.
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We noted acontinuation in other commodities, such as platinumand silver. Therefore, for South Africa, the gold price going up means that what we export is more valuable.” Gold is part of the precious metal basket, which includes palladium and platinum as well, Ackerman says. “Strong demand for those helped a lot in terms of the equity market last year and also added to the fiscus.
That is a very positive tailwind for South Africa’s equity market. “It is also reflected in better budget numbers in terms of our fiscal situation, which helped in terms of theratings upgrade we had, as well as the performance of the bond market and the rand. “Therefore, if gold continues to go higher and reaches a level like $5,000, it adds positively to our terms of trade and once again increases the value of what we export and as a commodity exporter, that supports the market.” Sanisha Packirisamy, chief economist at Momentum Investment, says gold surging past the US$5 000/oz level just now marks a historic milestone in its relentless rally driven by persistent structural forces.
“Limited new supply, hampered by declining ore grades, fewer major new discoveries and mine development lead times stretching beyond ten years, cannot keep pace with the robust demand. This scarcity is amplified by:
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