FIFA WORLD CUP11 JUN 2026Climate change increases risk of extreme heat at nearly all 2026 World Cup matches, studies findClimate change is increasing the likelihood that players will face heat conditions linked to reduced performance at…Sheree Bega5 min read

Researchers say a sustained heat of 28°C or more can reduce the frequency and intensity of sprints, alter tactical approaches and place teams that rely on high-pressing systems at a disadvantage Climate changeis increasing the likelihood that players will face heat conditions linked to reduced performance at nearly every match in the 2026World Cup, according to new analyses by Climate Central and the World Weather Attribution group. TheClimate Central analysisfound that 97 of the 104 scheduled matches will probably exceed 28°C, a temperature linked in sports science research to declines in player running intensity, speed and overall performance. On Thursday, Bafana Bafana kick off their first World Cup in 16 years against co-hosts Mexico at the iconic Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

During the next six weeks, soccer fans will watch 48 teams from across the world compete for the coveted prize. Teams will compete in 104 matches across 16 cities in the US, Mexico and Canada. Climate Central researchers say a sustained heat of 28°C or more can reduce the frequency and intensity of sprints, alter tactical approaches and place teams that rely on high-pressing systems at a disadvantage.

AWorld Weather Attributionassessmentadds further detail on how conditions will vary across the 16 host cities in the US, Mexico and Canada. As the tournament spans a wide geographic range, the weather is expected to differ sharply between venues. Coastal and northern cities, particularly in Canada and along parts of the US Pacific coast, are expected to experience relatively moderate temperatures.

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In contrast, inland and southern locations in the US and Mexico are more likely to experience sustained heat, with daytime temperatures frequently approaching or exceeding 30°C during the tournament period. The study emphasises that heat risk during football matches is driven not only by air temperature but also by humidity, which together determinewet bulb globe temperature(WBGT), a composite measure of heat stress that accounts for temperature, humidity, wind speed and radiant heat from sunlight. WBGT is widely used in sports science and occupational health because it better reflects the physiological strain placed on the human body during physical activity than temperature alone.

Under guidance from international players’ union Fifpro, cooling breaks are recommended when WBGT reaches 26°C, while conditions at or above 28°C are considered unsafe for play and could require postponement. Fifa’s regulations, however, mandate consideration of postponement at higher thresholds, underscoring a gap between athlete-centred guidance and governing-body rules, it notes.

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