ExxonMobil has updated its Corporate Plan through 2030, lifting its earnings and cash flow forecasts on the back of advantaged upstream assets, a stronger product portfolio, cost discipline, and faster-than-expected emissions-intensity reductions. The company now expects $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth versus 2024 on a constant price and margin basis, a $5 billion improvement over its previous plan, with no increase in capital spending. The revised outlook underscores the company’s execution gains since launching a multiyear transformation aimed at reducing structural costs, improving project delivery, and sharpening its portfolio focus.
ExxonMobil now targets cumulative structural cost savings of $20 billion versus 2019, up from a previous $18 billion commitment. At $65/bbl real Brent, ExxonMobil projects roughly $145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030, supported by forecast annual earnings growth averaging 13 percent. The company anticipates return on capital employed exceeding 17 percent by decade’s end and intends to maintain its current $20 billion annual share repurchase pace through 2026, subject to market conditions.
ExxonMobil also highlighted its 43-year dividend increase streak, positioning it among a small minority of S&P 500 companies with such longevity. Total upstream production is now projected to reach 5.5 million boe/d by 2030, with advantaged assets accounting for about 65 percent of volumes. These assets—principally the Permian Basin, Guyana developments, and LNG—are expected to deliver nearly 3.7 million boe/d by decade’s end.
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The Permian is the standout driver. Supported by technology gains, scale efficiencies, and synergies from the Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition, ExxonMobil expects to double Permian production to roughly 2.5 million boe/d by 2030, 200,000 boe/d higher than previous guidance. Pioneer synergies are now estimated at $4 billion annually, double initial projections.
The company reports early success with proprietary technologies aimed at doubling resource recovery, including about 20 percent uplift from lightweight proppant designs. ExxonMobil expects more than $9 billion in Product Solutions earnings growth through 2030 on constant nominal margins, driven by a slate of advantaged projects and the expansion of high-value output. Approximately $4 billion in earnings uplift will come from projects already online or underway, with 60 percent of that growth derisked by existing startups.
Higher-value products such as performance chemicals, lubricants, Proxxima systems, and carbon materials are expected to contribute over 40 percent of the segment’s 2030 earnings profile. This shift deepens ExxonMobil’s presence in differentiated, higher-margin markets. ExxonMobil highlighted its first-mover position in carbon capture and storage, with roughly 9 million metric tons per year of contracted third-party CO?
volumes and the world’s first large-scale, end-to-end CCS system operating along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Additional CCS projects with partners including Linde, Nucor, and NG3 are expected online in 2026, pending permitting and policy support.
The company is also progressing a proposed integrated CCS-enabled low-carbon data center development, targeting FID by late 2026. ExxonMobil plans approximately $20 billion in lower-emissions investments between 2025 and 2030, with about 60 percent aimed at helping third-party customers decarbonize. Looking beyond 2030, ExxonMobil anticipates contributions from upcoming LNG developments in Papua New Guinea and Mozambique, continued Permian expansion, and emerging businesses such as Proxxima systems, carbon materials, CCS, hydrogen, and lithium.
The company sees potential for these new businesses to generate approximately $13 billion in earnings by 2040, subject to policy evolution and market formation. ExxonMobil’s updated plan positions the company to deliver stronger returns, accelerate emissions-intensity improvements, and expand its foothold in low-carbon markets while maintaining capital discipline and emphasizing shareholder payouts.
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