EL NINO24 JUL 2026Preparing for El NiñoScientists are warning South Africa to prepare for an unusually early and strengthening El Niño that is likely to…Sheree Bega6 min read

Scientists are warning South Africa to prepare for an unusually early and strengthening El Niño that is likely to bring hotter-than-normal conditions and raise the risk of a drier summer, with climate models indicating it could become one of the strongest events on record. The biggest concerns are increased heat, pressure on water resources and agriculture, although the severity of rainfall impacts remains uncertain. Whether it ultimately develops into a “Super El Niño” remains uncertain.What scientists do agree on is that El Niño is firmly established, strengthening and warrants close attention.

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that influences weather around the world. Agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg said the current event was unusual because of how early it had developed. “The usual time of development is from July to September,” he said.

“The current El Niño started to develop in May. It can currently already be classified as a moderate/strong El Niño that is very early in the life cycle of El Niño events.” For southern Africa, El Niño has historically been associated with hotter and drier conditions over the summer rainfall region, although no two events unfold in the same way. The ENSO Reference Group a panel of experts from the South African Weather Service, the Agricultural Research Council, leading universities and other research institutions said El Niño conditions are now “firmly established and continuing to strengthen”, developing “against a backdrop of exceptionally warm global temperatures.” While the event is currently classified as moderate, seasonal forecast models indicate a high likelihood it will persist through the remainder of 2026, “with a significant probability of strengthening into a strong or even very strong event by late spring or early summer in the Southern Hemisphere”.

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However, the scientists stressed that “the strength of the El Niño event does not directly determine the impact”, as other oceanic and atmospheric systems can either amplify or reduce its effects. Although rainfall projections remain less certain than temperature forecasts, the experts said models point to increasing risks of below-normal rainfall across the summer rainfall region by early summer, while confidence is higher that above-normal temperatures and more frequent heatwaves and hot spells will occur from August to December.

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