Disparity in Iranian Attacks… Is There Reason to Look Beneath the Table?

The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran spread across the Middle East on March 2 with Lebanon’s Hezbollah entering the fray and a British air base in Cyprus targeted. In the early hours of theregional warthat erupted on February 28, 2026, a striking military detail emerged that did not go unnoticed by diplomats and analysts across the region: the clear disparity in the intensity of Iranian attacks targeting Gulf states. While the United Arab Emirates initially faced a series of intensive assaults involving missiles and drones, the strikes targeting Saudi Arabia appeared less intense during the first hours and days.

This pattern later shifted as attacks expanded to include Saudi oil facilities, yet the initial disparity remained sufficient to raise a sensitive question within political circles: was this merely the result of military calculations, or is there reason to look beneath the table? Estimates issued in March 2026 by a Western research centre specialising in strategic affairs indicate that Iran displayed what the report described as “relative restraint” towardsSaudi Arabia during the first 48 hours of the war. Estimates issued in March 2026 by a Western research centre specialising in strategic affairs indicate that Iran displayed what the report described as “relative restraint” toward According to those estimates, only a limited attack was recorded against targets inside Saudi Arabia during that period, compared with the launch of more than 150 missiles and around 500 drones towardsthe United Arab Emirates.

This disparity may be explained simply within a purely military logic: Tehran may have assessed that Saudi Arabia possesses a stronger deterrent capability, or that targeting it heavily from the outset could open a broad front difficult to contain. Yet in the Middle East—where military calculations are intertwined with political messaging—such details are rarely interpreted in isolation from the broader context. That context begins with the shift that marked relations between Riyadh and Tehran in 2023, when the two sides announced the resumption of diplomatic relations through Chinese mediation, ending a rupture that had lasted seven years.