De Beers Dilemma: To buy or not?

Econsult’s latest 2025 quarterly economic review warns that while a larger share could protect national interests, fiscal constraints and diamond sector dependence make the move risky Botswana faces a complex decision over whether to increase its shareholding in De Beers as Anglo American moves to sell its 85 percent stake in the diamond giant as part of a broader corporate rationalisation and restructuring. This is according to local economic think tank Econsult’s latest 2025 quarterly economic review. Econsult notes that the sale process has been slow, reflecting several complications, including the weak and uncertain outlook for the global natural diamond market, De Beers’ recent financial losses, and a lack of clarity over the Government of Botswana’s (GoB) intentions.

Under existing agreements, Botswana has the right of first refusal should Anglo proceed with the sale. Anglo American is believed to favour a direct sale to new owners rather than a public listing on a major stock exchange. While GoB has publicly indicated its interest in being a buyer, Econsult points out that it remains unclear whether this would involve a modest increase from its current 15 percent stake, the acquisition of a controlling interest of 35 percent plus one share, or a full buy-out of Anglo’s holding.

“Determining the best approach from Botswana’s perspective is a complex issue, with sharply differing views both inside and outside the country,” Econsult says. The review highlights that the International Monetary Fund has already advised GoB against increasing its stake in De Beers, citing Botswana’s precarious fiscal position and its already high dependence on diamonds. Econsult outlines several key considerations.

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First, the primary objective should be the revival and restructuring of De Beers to meet current challenges and the future demands of the global natural diamond industry. The question, economists argue, is which ownership coalition would be best placed to achieve this. Second, Botswana is financially constrained and lacks the fiscal space to fund a large acquisition from its own resources.

Borrowing to finance a share purchase would amount to a leveraged buy-out, which Econsult warns would be “difficult and risky” given existing debt pressures. Third, the review notes that Botswana already enjoys an effective economic interest of about 50 percent in De Beers, far exceeding its direct 15 percent shareholding. “The financial case for buying additional shares has not been clearly demonstrated,” Econsult argues. Finally, economists stress that Botswana’s overarching economic challenge remains diversification away from diamond mining, not deeper concentration in the sector.

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