There is much anxiety in South Africa about the possibility of losing access to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). Much of it is understandable. Trade preferences feel tangible; their removal feels punitive.
And in a period of already heightened economic insecurity, the idea that South Africa might be “pushed out” of a major trade arrangement with the US easily becomes a proxy for something deeper — a fear of isolation, of decline, of doors quietly closing. But when one steps back from the immediacy of the political drama and looks carefully at the structure of South Africa’s exports under Agoa a different picture begins to emerge, one that is far less dramatic and far more instructive. South Africa’s Agoa exports are not broadly spread across the economy.
They are, in fact, overwhelmingly concentrated in just two sectors. Motor vehicles and vehicle components account for 60%-65% of Agoa exports. Agriculture and agro-processed goods account for 20%-25%.
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Together, these two sectors make up almost 90% of South Africa’s Agoa-related trade. Everything else — chemicals, textiles, light manufacturing and so on — is comparatively marginal. This concentration matters, because once it is recognised, much of the alarmist commentary starts to lose its force.
Regarding the vehicle sector, on paper, Agoa provides duty-free access to the US market for South African-built vehicles. In practice though, that benefit has already been largely nullified. The US has imposed a 25% tariff on imported vehicles under its national security legislation.
That tariff applies irrespective of Agoa. It applies to allies and non-allies alike. Whether South Africa remains in Agoa or not, its vehicles already face that penalty.
The single largest component of South Africa’s Agoa exports has, for all practical purposes, thus already lost the benefit that Agoa was meant to provide. When commentators warn that an exit from Agoa will devastate the vehicle industry, they are often describing a counterfactual world that no longer exists. The damage they fear has, to a significant extent, already been front-loaded.
That leaves agriculture, the second-largest Agoa sector, and here the picture is even more revealing. Only a very small share of South Africa’s agricultural exports goes to the US, about 3%-4%. Most of South African agricultural exports flows to Africa, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. In comparing exports between January and September 2024 with the same period in 2025, something striking appears — growth in non-US agricultural markets exceeded $1bn.
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