Failure has many fathers. Some pundits have already come up a theory to try and blame northerners for failing to retain the Mayoral seat previously held by the opposition. To the contrary, numbers show that Kasama voters delivered an opposition victory which was merely fragmented!
A combined top three opposition tally (FDD: 14,302 representing 34.03%, CF: 4,405 representing 10.48% and UPPZ: 2,988 representing 7.11%) would have collectively handed a united opposition win with 21,695 votes against UPND Alliance’s 17,647 votes which put them in front to win the highly contested Mayoral seat in Kasama. Essentially, the picture above demonstrates that had the opposition worked together as a coalition, UPND would have lost in Kasama. A fragmented opposition now licking its own wounds, was no match for the UPND.The UPND was in it to win.
The Chawama Parliamentary by-election loss was too bitter to be repeated. They needed to have reason to believe that they were still loved by the masses and Kasama was the litmus test. Therefore, they took the assignment seriously.
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They had presence, they deployed their best available arsenal. An army of branded and well equipped cadres was present. Sibongile Mwamba as serving Member of Parliament, campaigned against her sponsoring party.
Elvis Nkandu, Chipoka Mulenga, Frank Tayali, Levy Ngoma, District Commissioners, to mention but a few, were all present till the last whistle. To the contrary, a fragmented and resource starved opposition went into Kasama, each trying to prove a devastating and costly miscalculation of their own relevance. The result of Kasama, instead of strengthening the opposition’s disposition, is a resounding hollow slap in their faces collectively, and a mockery to their narrow partisan interests that are devoid of a national character.
Opposition figures casually strolled into Kasama, showed face and took the next available flight back to Lusaka while leaving a hungry and victory starved ruling party machinery intact on the ground. The ruling party took Kasama as a proof of concept and it worked. It gave them insights on what they need to do even if it means winning by a narrow margin in August.
They plucked a template: deploy, motivate cadres, dominate, spend, capitalise on rural hunger and desperation, stay on the ground and defend the vote until the last day. If Kasama were the results of the August 2026 general elections, UPND would have won by a slender margin or at most forced a rerun.The 17,647 final tally they harvested only represents 41.99% which is below the 50+1 threshold required to secure a win. On the flip side, a combined top three opposition tally (FDD: 14,302 representing 34.03%, CF: 4,405 representing 10.48% and UPPZ: 2,988 representing 7.11%) would collectively have handed a united opposition win of 21,695 in Kasama.
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