Warnings of a “code-red” climate risk dominated a Presidential Climate Commission session, with experts describing eThekwini as a ticking time bomb for the next major natural disaster — and may even be hit by tropical cyclones. Former PCC commissioner Bobby Peek told the 20th meeting in Pretoria, “We need to expedite whatever we’re doing around early warning systems, because it’s coming at us. We know that it is expected that we’ll get cyclones in Durban, or reaching Durban, in the next decade.” In April 2022, catastrophic floods driven by exceptionally intense rainfall struck KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), triggering landslides, infrastructure collapse, more than 400 deaths and the displacement of more than 30,000 residents, becoming one of South Africa’s deadliest climate-related disasters on record.
Former PCC deputy chair Dr Crispian Olver agreed with Peek: “We’re not doing enough to prepare for the upcoming changes, and they have very severe consequences. Underinvesting in this area will have long-term detrimental effects on our development and our people’s lives.” He reiterated on Friday that climate systems are shifting progressively south from Mozambique, “so there’s going to be much more intense, active cyclonic activity off the coast of KZN”. “We did a report after the [KZN] floods in 2022, and then we did a follow-up report this year… and basically none of the recommendations that were made [in 2022] have been properly acted upon.
So, Durban — eThekwini — is a sitting duck for the next flood catastrophe, and it’s, in our opinion, a code red,” Olver said. According to the PCC’s 2025 report, eThekwini “has demonstrated policy innovation and leadership in climate adaptation”. However, “systemic challenges in governance, resources and enforcement undermine its readiness for future climate-related disasters”.
Read Full Article on Business Day
[paywall]
Africa is acutely vulnerable to climate change, not only because of limited resources to manage its impacts but also because of the continent’s strong climate signal. A climate signal is the detectable fingerprint of climate change in weather and environmental data. It is the pattern that shows how much a region is warming, drying or experiencing extreme events compared with global averages.
Business Day has previously reported that the southern hemisphere is warming at roughly twice the global average. In practical terms, if the world is preparing for 1.5°C of warming, African regions could face temperature rises closer to 3°C. This amplified warming is already visible in the western Indian Ocean, where sea-surface temperatures off Mozambique are rising and the band of warm water is extending further south. As a result, cyclones that traditionally make landfall in Mozambique may increasingly track towards South Africa’s coastline.
[/paywall]
