Commodities were pelted in 2025 by the whirlwind of tariffs and policies imposed by US President Donald Trump, and while the storm may recede in 2026, the ripples will last some time. Trump’s efforts to remake global trade and his shifting geopolitical moves have boosted volatility in commodity markets, with prices being driven by daily headlines rather than fundamentals. However, the list of winners and losers in 2026 may be different from 2025, largely depending on which version of Trump the world gets.
A more settled US policy is likely to see gold, the star performer of 2025 with a gain of 60%, move into a consolidation phase, albeit with the bullish support of central bank purchases and investors seeking alternatives to previously safe assets such as US treasuries. It would take a new crisis to spark another surge in gold, with a candidate for such an event being the risk that the Federal Reserve loses credibility if its new chair is seen to be a political lackey of Trump and cuts interest rates to juice the economy even as inflation persists. The risk of a market reaction to the high fiscal deficits and debt burdens in much of the developed world is another event that could bolster gold.
If these risks materialise and global economic growth comes under pressure, it’s likely that commodities such as crude oil and copper would come under significant pressure. Even assuming the world economy successfully navigates the second year of Trump’s second stint in the White House, there are downside risks to many major commodities. Crude oilmay come under pressure from rising supply and the potential return of Russian barrels to the open market, assuming a peace deal is reached to end the conflict inUkraine. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) may also come under pressure as more US plants are commissioned, and lower prices are needed to clear the overhang of supply.
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