The world is heading towards “catastrophic” environmental breakdown that will cost trillions of dollars, claim millions of lives and destabilise economies — unless governments rapidly change course, according to the United Nations’ most comprehensive global environmental assessment to date. TheGlobal Environment Outlook: Seventh Edition(GEO-7), released by the UN Environment Programme (Unep) at the Environment Assembly in Nairobi, draws on the work of 287 scientists from 82 countries. “The scientific consensus is that following current development pathways will bring catastrophicclimate change, devastation to nature andbiodiversity, debilitating land degradation anddesertificationand lingering deadlypollution— all at a huge cost to people, planet and economies,” it said.
Instead, the report argues, the world can choose a different path. That alternative requires “whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches” to transform the systems that underpin modern life, including the economy and finance, materials and waste, energy, food and the environment. These shifts must be supported by behavioural, social and cultural change, including respect for indigenous and local knowledge.
Despite decades of international commitments, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise, increasing by about 1.5% a year since 1990 and reaching a new high in 2024. As a result, global temperatures are projected to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the early 2030s, exceed 2°C by the 2040s, and continue to rise thereafter. On this trajectory, climate change alone could reduce global GDP by approximately 4% by 2050 and by up to 20% by the end of the century.
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These estimates exclude health impacts, biodiversity loss, and climate tipping points, implying that the actual economic damage would likely be far higher. The costs are already visible, the report noted.Climate-related extreme weather eventshave caused an estimated $143 billion in annual damage over the past two decades. Between 20% and 40% of the world’s land area is now degraded, affecting more than three billion people, while about 24 billion tonnes of fertile soil are lost annually.
One million of the planet’s estimated eight million species are threatened with extinction, with wildlife populations declining across most regions. Pollution remains the largest environmental risk to human health. About nine million premature deaths each year are attributed to pollution from contaminated air, water and soils.
The economic cost of health damage from air pollution alone was estimated at $8.1 trillion in 2019 — about 6.1% of global GDP — and could rise to between $18 trillion and $25 trillion by 2060 if current trends persist. Meanwhile, solid waste volumes, already exceeding two billion tonnes per year, are expected to nearly double by 2050, while the eight billion tonnes ofplastic wastealready polluting the planet continue to accumulate.
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