China’s tech race strategy prioritises a clear destination, a focus America’s market-driven model lacks. While parts of the Tengchong report are overly optimistic, it offers a crucial narrative about humanity’s future path, which bureaucratic assessments and regulations fail to provide. In early December, in a corner of Yunnan Province near the Myanmar border, something rather extraordinary happened.
While most of the Western tech world was busy arguing about whether AI would take their jobs or merely make them obsolete, China quietly rolled out what amounts to a 24-year construction schedule for its view of civilisation. It was a big deal, but you wouldn’t have thought so given the paucity of coverage in the Western press. The Tengchong Scientists Forum – an annual gathering that sounds like something from a science fiction novel, but is very much real – unveiled Tech Predictions and Future Visions 2049.
And if you’re expecting the usual hand-wringing about AI safety or vague promises about innovation ecosystems that we hear in the West, you won’t find it. This document reads less like a forecast and more like a project plan for the next quarter-century. (The document is 95 pages long and not available in its entirety unless you attended the conference, so I gleaned the following from various summaries.) The report, developed over a year by a consortium that reads like a who’s who of Chinese tech royalty – Huawei’s Strategic Research Institute, Tencent Research Institute, Shanghai AI Laboratory and the China Mobile Research Institute – lays out 10 specific technological endpoints.
Read Full Article on Daily Maverick
[paywall]
Not possibilities. Not scenarios. Endpoints.
Vision One: Artificial superintelligence amplifying human cognition through seamless brain-machine communication. Vision Three: Flying cars as mainstream urban transport under AI-managed low-altitude flight systems. Vision Eight: The total decarbonisation of industry through high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and integrated energy networks.
What is striking isn’t just the ambition; it’s the certainty. In the Chinese view, the future isn’t something that happens to you – it’s something you build to specification. This represents a fundamental, and perhaps irreconcilable, clash with the Western (and specifically American) model of technological development.
In the US, the dominant philosophy is market-led and risk-focused. Innovation is seen as a series of bottom-up explosions – OpenAI, SpaceX, or Nvidia – driven by venture capital and individual brilliance. The role of the state is primarily to regulate, to provide guardrails, and to manage the “risks” of these new technologies.
It’s a reactive stance. They wait for the technology to emerge, then they panic about its implications, and then they try to write rules to contain it. China has inverted this.
The state defines the destination (the “2049 Vision”), and the market is then mobilised to build the road. This is not just a difference in economic policy; it’s a difference in civilisational philosophy. One is a process-oriented culture focusing on how we compete; the other is a goal-oriented culture focusing on what we are building.
The report also highlights a growing divide in how the two superpowers view the purpose of technology. In the American narrative, technology is about individual empowerment, efficiency, and (lately) existential risk. In the Chinese narrative, technology is about national rejuvenation, social stability and the physical re-engineering of the world.
But America’s process- and policy-oriented approach has its own blind spots. When China announces it’s building toward a “mirror world” of high-precision digital twins, American policy responds with guidance on deepfake detection standards. When China declares that molecular medicine will enable “programmable health”, America discusses ethical frameworks.
The Tengchong Forum’s Nobel laureates, Fields Medallists, and other award-winners weren’t gathered in Yunnan by accident (ever heard of Andrew Chi-Chih Yao and Pan Jianwei? Neither had I). This isn’t just about technology – it’s about legitimacy, narrative, and the soft power that comes from appearing to know where the future is heading.
[/paywall]
