Trump’s actions in Venezuela are going to be a major milestone in the fundamental change we are seeing in the global order. This may be remembered as the start of the end of an international order based on rules. I was quite looking forward to sharing some of the details of my holidays with you, hopefully to remind you of your own lazy days watching the sun go down over a wonderful beach, bumping into people you know and quality time with the whole family together.
But it was while my son and I were packing the car that I realised this year was going to start, well, with a bigger bump than usual. Like so many other events these days I first heard about it on a WhatsApp group. And like so many people on the group I couldn’t believe what I was reading.
I find it absolutely breathtaking that the government of one country has literally kidnapped the head of state of another. I remember all of the arguments in our society about whether we should invite Vladimir Putin to that BRICS summit a couple of years ago, and the clarity that one simple fact appeared to provide: that nowhere in the modern era had it happened that a sitting head of state had been arrested by another country (I am, of course, aware of the Manuel Noriega example, but in that case that country’s legislature had already declared a “state of war” with the US). In the short term we, as South Africa, actually seem to be in a pretty safe place.
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Yes, members of our government have shown public support for the regime running Venezuela in the past, but it seems unlikely that we will stick our necks out very far. Certainly the first public response from our government, that the United Nations Security Council needs to meet and the rule of law must be followed, is entirely rational and legitimate. While South Africa may be seen as an ally of Maduro and his undemocratic government, we are not nearly as close to him as China or Russia. The first consequence, of course, is good for us: the gold price surged on the news of his abduction.
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