Brace for significant diesel price hikes in April as oil prices surge

The war in the Middle East has sent oil prices surging. South Africa is set for a fuel price shock at the beginning of April, as soaring international oil prices and a weaker rand could result in the largest monthly increases in history. The extent of the increases remains difficult to predict at this early stage of the month, but the latest data from the Central Energy Fund is painting a grim picture.

The ‘best case scenario’ at present is a petrol price hike of R2.41 for petrol and diesel increases of up to R4.50 for 50ppm diesel. This prediction is, however, based on the month average, which has yet to fully factor in the sharp oil price surges that took place during the latter half of the past week. Daily data released on Friday showed a diesel under-recovery of R7 per litre, with petrol around R3.78 in the red.

Should current oil price and rand trends continue for the remainder of the month, South Africans will almost certainly see a petrol increase of more than R3 and diesel going up by over R5, and that’s a conservative estimate. 95 Unleaded petrol currently costs R19.47 at the coast and R20.30 in Gauteng, where 93 Unleaded retails at R20.19. The wholesale price of diesel is currently pegged at R17.84 at the coast and R19.17 inland.