Amid the optimism about South Africa’s prospects in 2026, economic growth is crucial to our longer-term future. If the economy expands, the coalition and the Constitution are strengthened. If the economy fails to grow now, we risk losing our last real chance to defeat the rising tide of anti-constitutionalist and radical forces.
While multiple lenses exist to interpret South Africa’s current political climate, the most significant structural divide is whether a party is in the national coalition or outside it. Obviously, there are big differences between the parties that are members of the coalition, but broadly speaking, they support the Constitution, the rule of law and democracy. Even though some, like the Patriotic Alliance or Al Jama-ah, are populist, and others, like the Pan Africanist Congress, want to change important parts of the Constitution, in essence, these are parties that support the current system, while most of the parties outside the coalition want radical change.
The prime examples are the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, which doesn’t believe there should be a Constitution, while the EFF wants radical changes that would fundamentally change SA’s political system. There are exceptions, like ActionSA, which is outside the coalition and broadly supportive of the Constitution. Perhaps the most important factor determining whether parties remain in the coalition or leave it is economic growth.
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Prosperity is the glue that holds coalitions together. If the economy thrives, ideological differences and personality clashes fade into the background, as no party wants to be blamed for abandoning a winning formula. So, if the economy grows, the parties in the coalition are likely to enter the 2029 elections with the expectation of staying in the coalition, giving them another five years in power and, if they are successful, more space for the economy to grow.
Improving the material conditions of the majority would strengthen the forces of constitutionalism and weaken radical voices. Conversely, an economic failure would trigger an exodus from the coalition as parties distance themselves from a sinking ship. Such a collapse would leave voters vulnerable to anti-constitutionalist rhetoric, potentially ending the coalition well before or by 2029.
If radical parties then enter the government, or win significantly more support, the chances of SA’s economy growing would weaken substantially. A victory for radical parties would stifle economic growth, potentially permanently barring a pro-constitutional coalition from regaining power. While our current political landscape may seem stable, the clock is ticking — and the deadline is fast approaching. The upcoming local elections could fundamentally reorder party dynamics and shift the balance of power, making the end of this year a critical turning point for South African politics.
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