Mozambique: Mphanda Nkuwa now targets 2034 start-up, projects US$13.98bn for the state

The Mphanda Nkuwa Hydropower Project is now expected to complete its development phase by 2028, begin construction in 2029 and enter commercial operation from 2034, according to an update presented by the project’s Implementation Office during the 21st Session of the Council of Ministers. The project, to be built on the Zambezi River in Tete province, envisages the construction of a hydropower plant with an installed capacity of 1,500 MW and a high-voltage transmission line of approximately 1,300 kilometres, linking the generation area to the country’s main centres of electricity demand, including Maputo. The latest estimate places total investment at between US$6 billion and US$7 billion, making Mphanda Nkuwa one of the largest infrastructure projects ever planned in Mozambique.

The power station will operate as a run-of-river facility, using water flows released from Cahora Bassa. Once operational, it will supply electricity to the domestic market, meet the needs of new industrial consumers and export surplus power through the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). However, the physical scale of the project is only part of the equation.

Its viability depends on generation, transmission, financing, power purchase agreements and government guarantees progressing in a coordinated manner. Timetable pushes commercial operation back by two to three years The planned start of commercial operations in 2034 represents a revision to the timetable contained in earlier planning documents. Mozambique’s Energy Transition Strategy, approved in 2023, projected that Mphanda Nkuwa would begin operating in 2031.

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Meanwhile, the National Energy Compact, prepared under the World Bank and African Development Bank’s Mission 300 initiative, identified 2032 as the target year for commercial operation. The revised timetable therefore represents a delay of between two and three years compared with previous projections. Such changes are not unusual for a project of this scale.

Large hydropower developments typically involve lengthy technical studies, environmental licensing, debt structuring, guarantee negotiations, power purchase agreements, resettlement programmes and preparation of transmission infrastructure. Nevertheless, the revised timetable must be incorporated into national energy planning. Industrial demand, electrification targets, mining projects, economic corridors and electricity export commitments must all take into account that the additional 1,500 MW will only become available after 2034, provided the new schedule is fully met.

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