CLIMATE CHANGE4 AUG 2026Climate change redrawing Africa’s malaria map, raising risk in South AfricaA landmark study published in Nature reveals that climate change is reshaping Africa’s malaria map, increasing the…Sheree Bega5 min read

Scientists say climate change is changing where malaria spreads across Africa, with South Africa’s north-eastern provinces projected to experience some of the continent’s biggest increases in climate-driven risk Climate changeis reshaping Africa’smalariamap, increasing the risk of the disease in South Africa’s north-eastern provinces and the East African highlands even as warming temperatures make some of the continent’s current malaria hotspots less suitable for transmission, according to a landmark study published inNature. The internationalstudy, co-authored by researchers from the University of Cape Town (UCT), is the most comprehensive assessment to date of how human-caused climate change has influenced childhood malaria across sub-Saharan Africa, where most global malaria cases and deaths occur. The researchers found that climate change has slightly increased childhood malaria overall but its effects vary sharply across the continent.

As temperatures rise, malaria transmission is projected to decline in some of today’s hottest endemic regions while increasing in cooler parts of southern and East Africa that are becoming more suitable for the disease. For South Africa, that means Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal are expected to experience some of the largest increases in climate-driven malaria risk on the continent over the coming decades. Co-authorDr Christopher Trisos, the director of theClimate Risk Laband principal research officer at UCT’sAfrican Climate and Development Initiative, said the provinces could see some of the largest increases in malaria risk from climate change in Africa by 2050.

The researchers estimate that historical human-caused climate change has caused 10.79 excess childhood malaria cases per 1 000 children in South Africa compared with a world without human-caused warming. Under an intermediate emissions scenario, climate change is projected to contribute almost 10 additional cases per 1 000 children by 2050 and nearly 18 by the end of the century in South Africa. Trisos said the study found a notable climate-driven increase in childhood malaria in Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal attributable to human-caused climate change.

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“That doesn’t necessarily mean that overall malaria in those provinces has gone up,” he told theMail&Guardian. “We’re looking at the climate change part of this. “Climate change has caused an increase in malaria in those provinces and will cause an increase in the future but its effects are smaller than what we know effective intervention strategies can control today.

With good planning and sufficient investment, it should be possible to adapt and prevent those increases.” Malaria is the world’s deadliestclimate-sensitive infectious disease, with children carrying the greatest burden. About 95% of malaria cases occur in children aged two to 10 years, while children under five account for 80% of malaria deaths. Although malaria exists in many parts of the world, most cases occur in Africa.

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