South African, Namibian fortunes diverge in shared Orange Basin oil province

The Orange Basin petroleum province shared by Namibia and South Africa has become a test case for how African states balance the demands of oil companies and local groups, with billions of dollars in investment, jobs and tax revenues at stake. The province has made Namibia a global exploration hotspot, pushing for first oil by 2030 and expected to initially produce around 150,000 barrels per day via TotalEnergies’ Venus project. South Africa has yet to unlock similar reserves.

Two events in June highlighted the widening gap between how the two countries are handling the basin’s development. On June 9, Shell put out a statement describing a new find offshore Namibia as having the “most promising subsurface results to date” in petroleum exploration licence 39, home to multiple promising wells since 2022 including the country’s first major oil discovery Graff-1X. A week earlier, in a packed Cape Town courthouse, environmental groups and fishing communities launched a bid to overturn a permit allowing TGS to conduct offshore seismic surveys in South Africa’s area of the basin.

Environmental groups and local communities have launched at least four court cases and numerous other appeals against South African offshore ventures and proposed onshore liquefied natural gas projects since 2021, according to eco-justice group Green Connection. That has delayed up to 10 wells expected to be drilled by 2030, South Africa’s petroleum regulator PASA said. “We cannot explore, we cannot spend money in a geography if we have to face courts permanently and the permitting becomes really too complex,” TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said during October’s results presentation when asked about South Africa and Namibia.

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Permits can take up to five years to secure in South Africa Formed millions of years ago when South America broke away from Africa, the Orange Basin is named after a river that drains into the Atlantic Ocean along the border of South Africa and Namibia. In South Africa, where around two-thirds of the basin lies, non-governmental organisations and environmental activists have taken a more aggressive approach to contesting projects in extractive industries compared to Namibia, with varied success. Current regulations there, which cut across different ministries, allow for wide-ranging internal appeals against environmental and social impact assessments, as well as judicial reviews in court, whose outcomes can then also be appealed.

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