Is SA making good on its climate promises? Our sums say ‘yes’ — at least so far

To make good on its climate promises, South Africa is aiming to pumpno more than the equivalent of 420 million tonnes of carbon dioxideinto the air by 2030 — and according to our sums, it looks like the country is on track. That’s why a loan of aboutR3.8 billion (about €200million/R62bn)from Germany announced in April is such a boon. The funding is part of theJust Energy Transition Partnership, which is meant to help South Africa switch to renewable energy sources like solar and wind power — something that is especially important seeing that coal-fired power stations and cars that run on petrol and diesel account for more than 80% of South Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Burning fossil fuels like oil and coal produces gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These form a layer in the Earth’s atmosphere thattraps heat from the sun, almost like how a greenhouse holds warmth inside — which is where the termgreenhouse gasescomes from. If too much of the gases build— as has been happening over the past century — the temperature of the air close to the Earth’s surfacecan creep up beyond what life on Earth can comfortably handle.

Over many years, the warming leads to changes in how much it rains in places, what minimum and maximum daytime temperatures look like and how long dry spells last. In other words, an area’s climate starts to change. Experts predict that climate change will lead to extreme weather events like floods, storms, droughts and heatwaves becomingmore intense and unpredictable, which could make it harder for people to stay well or get healthcare when they get sick, affect how people earn their livelihoods and make growing food more difficult.

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A big survey before the 2024 general elections showed that for11% of votersclimate change — and by implication what politicians would do about it — was one of the top three things they’d think about when deciding who to vote for. And 13 of the 15 parties whoseelection manifestosBhekisisaanalysed at the timepromised to do something about issues linked to climate change. Withextreme heatin parts of the Western Cape andheavy rainfall and stormsin the northern and eastern parts of South Africa in the first three months of the year, would people again keep the effects of changing weather patterns — and how leaders will deal with the fallout — in mind when they decide how to vote in the upcoming local government electionson November 4?

We dived into thousands of data points linked to climate change indicators to put together a three-part series of stories to unpack what South Africa is doing to help keep global warming manageable and what the consequences could be of not putting plans in place to deal with extreme weather. In our first story, we look at four questions about where the country stands when it comes to GHG emissions. Here’s what we found out.

In 2024, South Africa’s GHG emissions made up 1% of the world’s total. Four other countries — China, the US, India and Russia — together accounted for about half the world’s emissions. Although South Africa’s contribution is just 1% of the world total, it’s a massive amount — in fact, the equivalent of about 570 million tonnes of carbon dioxide,international data shows. (Because carbon dioxide isn’t the only type of greenhouse gas, scientists use the term“carbon dioxide equivalents” (CO2-eq)as a standard reporting unit in calculations.)

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