Mozambique growth forecast cut to 0.9% as World Bank lowers PALOP outlook, except Guinea-Bissau

The World Bank has downgraded its economic growth forecasts for nearly all Portuguese-speaking African Countries (PALOP) for this year, with Guinea-Bissau being the sole exception, expecting a sharp rise in inflation across these economies. According to the World Bank’sbiannual regional economic update on African economies (Africa Economic Update – Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa],released on Wednesday in Washington,Guinea-Bissauis expected to grow by 5.3% this year, a slight increase from the 5.2% projected for October 2025. World Bank economists have lowered growth expectations for the rest of the PALOP countries:Angolais expected to grow by 2.4% rather than 2.6%, as forecast in October 2025, with the same applying toCabo Verde, which has seen its economic growth forecast reduced from 5.2% to 4.8%.

São Tomé and Príncipeis expected to grow by 2.9%, rather than 4% as forecast in October. Mozambiquesaw the most significant revision, expected to record growth of 0.9%, rather than 3% as forecast in October 2025. Equatorial Guineais expected to enter another recession with a 3.5% contraction, a sharp reversal from the previously estimated 0.4% GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth.

The World Bank attributed these revisions largely to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East, revealing a significant rise in inflation in these countries, with Angola leading the way, recording a price rise of around 15%, followed by São Tomé and Príncipe, where prices are expected to rise by 11%. InMozambique,the rise is expected to be 7.5%, inEquatorial Guinea6.2%, inGuinea-Bissau5.8% and inCabo Verdeinflation is expected to be 3.2%, with all these figures representing increases compared to the October 2025 forecasts, withGuinea-Bissaustanding out, having seen its forecast almost triple, from 2% to 5.8%. On average, the PALOP nations are projected to grow by 2%, less than half the average for Sub-Saharan Africa, which is set at 4.1%, 0.3 percentage points lower than forecast in October 2025.

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“Among the countries in the region, some of the largest economies have had their forecasts revised downwards for 2026, namely Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Zambia”, the report said, adding that “around 60% of the countries in the region (29 out of 47) have seen their growth forecasts for 2026 revised downwards”. READ:Mozambique: World Bank accused of using outdated statistics – AIM report World Bank economists warned that the downward revisions to economic growth forecasts for the region indicated a decline in personal incomes, highlighting that 15 of the 47 countries in the region, that is, nearly a third, would see per capita income fall below 2014 levels, with nine of those 15 nations experiencing a drop of more than 10%.

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