Lamola warns southern African leaders of food inflation from US-Iran tensions

The escalating conflict between the US and Iran risks triggering oil price spikes, food inflation and weaker investment flows across Southern Africa, minister of international relations and co-operationRonald Lamolahas warned. Lamola addressed his counterparts on Thursday at the Sadc council of ministers meeting where he said the conflict, which began on February 28, was already reverberating through global markets and threatening supply chains. “The current geopolitical climate, including the US and Iran’s war and Iran’s retaliation within the GCC [Gulf Co-operation Council] countries, is already sending shock waves through our societies, threatening supply chains and energy shocks,” he said.

The remarks reflect growing concern among African governments that the widening Middle East conflict could amplify economic pressures in import-dependent economies. Southern African countries are particularly exposed to swings in global oil and fertiliser prices, which feed directly into transport and food costs. “There is a growing concern that Gulf states may reassess overseas investment in infrastructure, critical minerals, energy and technology as their priorities shift towards internal defence and security considerations,” Lamola warned rising crude prices could quickly spill over into food markets and put a strain on public finances in the region.

“Beyond the immediate impact of rising global oil prices, a spike in fertiliser costs is set to drive food prices up and further compromise food security across many of our countries,” he said. “We will not emerge unscathed from this. Our public finances are likely to come under even greater strain and it’s our people who will bear the cost.” Lamola noted that Gulf states may shift priorities toward defence and domestic security, which could reduce overseas investments. “There is a growing concern that Gulf states may reassess overseas investment in infrastructure, critical minerals, energy and technology as their priorities shift towards internal defence and security considerations.” The turbulence underscores the urgency of deeper regional cooperation to shield the bloc’s more than 380-million people from external shocks, he added.